[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241619
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 04N19W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N23W to 01N34W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of a
line from 04N17W to 08N38W to 09N55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Big Bend area of
Florida to off southern Texas. No significant convection is
noted with the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, two lows are
analyzed over the western part of the basin. The first low is
analyzed near 25N92 and is not producing any notable convection,
while the second low is located near Veracruz, Mexico and is
producing a large complex of numerous strong thunderstorms over
the Bay of Campeche that is moving quickly eastward. While
lightning activity has decreased with these thunderstorms,
mariners navigating through the impacted waters are urged to use
caution. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are found in the western Gulf, and up
to 10 ft near the low centers. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the
gradient generally supports seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the abovementioned frontal boundary is
expected to dissipate later today. Fresh to strong E winds along
and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will diminish
by early this afternoon, then redevelop Wed night. Another
frontal boundary will enter the NW Gulf late
this week but no appreciable increase in winds or seas is
forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An atypical weak pressure pattern across the basin is bringing
generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to
fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas remain rather
low throughout, in the 2 to 4 ft range. Higher seas of 4 to 6 ft
are in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will develop in and
near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of
Honduras beginning Wed. Seas will build to 7 ft Thu and Fri.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters
will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from near 31N74W to just east of
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Outside of some light showers, no
significant winds or seas are associated with this boundary. To
the southeast of the frontal boundary, a broad surface trough
extends from.a weak 1011 mb low pressure east of the Bahamas
near 23N55W to north of the Greater Antilles near 21N75W. No
significant convection is occurring with the trough. A recent
ASCAT pass reveals moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the
trough from 24N to 27N and between 54W and 71W. Light to gentle
mostly E winds are elsewhere north of the trough. Seas of 5 to 7
ft are found north of 24N between 55W and 70W, while seas of 3
to 5 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W.

Further east, another trough is analyzed from 31N33W to near
23N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of
the trough from 31N to 23N between 28W and 47W. A scatterometer
pass earlier this morning reveals moderate to fresh S to SW
winds east of the trough to 36W and north of 24N and moderate to
fresh W winds behind the trough to 50W and north of 28N. Seas
north of 23N between 25W to 55W are 8 to 11 ft in NW to N swell.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W,  the aforementioned stationary
front will begin to slowly move southeastward as a cold front
reaching from near
31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida this afternoon where it will stall.
The frontal boundary will then weaken through late Mon and
dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally strong S winds
are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late
Thu as weak low pressure forms along a stalled out boundary
offshore the Georgia southeast coast.

$$
Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net