[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 10N14.5W and continues southwestward to near 03.5N20.5W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N29W to
03.5N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed south of a line from 07.5N13W to 04N21W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side
of the ITCZ between 21W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends E to W along the north Gulf
coasts from the Big Bend area of Florida to off SE Texas. No
significant convection is noted with the frontal boundary.
Meanwhile, a 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed over the
southwestern part of the basin near 23.5N91W and is not producing
any notable convection. A surface trough extends from the Florida
coast just north of Tampa Bay to the low center then continues NW
and into southern Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
cover most of the Gulf N of 24N and E of 87W. Widely scattered
embedded moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the trough.
Midday satellite scatterometer data showed a broad zone of mostly
fresh cyclonic winds wrapping around the low center. Morning buoy
and altimeter data showed seas to 10 ft to the NW of the low
pressure center. Recent observations suggest seas N of 25N and W
of 93W that seas are still 7-9 ft, and 5-8 ft to the southwest of
the low. Moderate to fresh ENE to NE winds across northeast
portions of the basin are producing seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary is expected
to dissipate by Tue. The low pressure in the SW Gulf will weaken
overnight and dissipate late Tue. The pressure gradient between
these two feature will maintain fresh easterly winds across the
north central and northwest portions of the Gulf through Tue night
and maintain seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong E winds along and
just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will diminish by
early this afternoon, then redevelop Wed night. Another frontal
boundary will enter the NW Gulf late this week but no appreciable
increase in winds or seas is forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An atypical weak pressure pattern across the basin is producing
generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to
fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas remain rather
low throughout, in the 2 to 4 ft range. Higher seas of 4 to 6 ft
are in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will develop in and
near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of
Honduras beginning Wed. Seas will build to 7 ft Thu and Fri.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters
will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from near 31N72W to just east of
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Outside of some moderate showers and
thunderstorms moving offshore of the Florida Peninsula just north
of the front, no significant winds or seas are associated with
this boundary. To the southeast of the frontal boundary, an old
frontal boundary in the form of a trough extends across the basin
from near 31N32W to 23.5N50W to 23N70W. Moderate NE winds and
seas 6-7 ft are found within 120 nm N of the trough between 53W
and 70W, while moderate to fresh winds are found on either side of
the trough to the E of 46W. Isolated moderate convection dots the
waters within 90 of the trough W of 46W, while scattered to
numerous moderate convection continues within 240 nm SE of the
trough E of 46W. Seas north of the trough and E of 50W are 7-11 ft
in new NW swell, and 5-8 ft south of the trough. Light and
variable winds are elsewhere south of the trough and W of 55W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W,  the aforementioned stationary
front will begin to slowly move southeastward as a cold front
reaching from near 31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida this evening,
where it will stall. The frontal boundary will then weaken
through late Mon and dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally
strong S winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida
beginning late Thu as weak low pressure forms along a stalled out
boundary offshore the southeast Georgia coast.

$$
Stripling
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