[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 02N21W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 03N34W to 03N42W and to 05N51W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of
the ITCZ between 36W-41W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between
45W-51W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-30W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
45W-52W, and also northwest of the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between
51W-57W.

A cluster of scattered moderate convection has emerged off the
coast of Africa, and is noted from 03N to 05N between 08W-12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches from the coast of central Louisiana
to the tip of southern Texas and to inland northeastern Mexico.
A cold front continues eastward from eastern Louisiana to near
Panama City, FL. No significant precipitation noted with these
frontal boundaries. Meanwhile, a rather potent squall line is
analyzed from near 27N90W to 22N94W. It is racing eastward. A
large complex of numerous strong thunderstorms is racing eastward
along and ahead of the squall line from 22N to 29N between
85W-90W. The thunderstorms are accompanied by frequent lighting,
strong wind gusts reaching to gale-force at times and heavy
rainfall reducing visibility. An overnight ASCAT data pass
captured strong to gale-force north to northeast winds near the
thunderstorm activity, roughly from 24N to 26N between 94W-96W.
These winds were transfered down to the surface by the
thunderstorm activity as very strong jet stream winds exist aloft.
Mariners navigating through the impacted waters are urged to use
caution. Seas in the NW Gulf are 6-9 ft, except from 25N to 27N
between 94W and 96W, where seas quickly rose to the range of
10-17 ft as the thunderstorms and associated winds impacted this
part of the area during the evening and in the overnight hours.
Buoy 42020 located just east of the southern Texas coast at 27N97W
is reporting seas to 9 ft. A cluster of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf. Elsewhere
across the Gulf, the gradient generally supports seas of 3-5 ft,
except for higher seas of 7-10 ft over the west-central Gulf per
an altimeter data pass over that part of the Gulf, 4-6 ft over the
eastern Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf and 5-7 ft offshore
southwestern Louisiana and also over the central Gulf. in

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary
and weaken as it reaches from northern Florida to western Gulf
this morning. The squall line and complex of strong to severe
thunderstorms will weaken as it moves from the central Gulf to the
eastern Gulf by early this afternoon. Fresh to strong east winds
along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will
diminish by early this afternoon, then redevelop Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An atypical weak pressure pattern across the basin is bringing
generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
remain rather low throughout, in the 2-4 ft range. Higher seas of
4-6 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras.

Isolated showers are over the eastern Caribbean, including near
the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in
and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast
of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, the prevailing weak
pressure gradient over the basin will maintain relatively quiet
marine conditions through at least mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from near 31N75W to just east of
Cape Canaveral. No significant winds or seas are associated with
this boundary. To the southeast of the frontal boundary, a broad
surface trough is located north of the eastern Greater Antilles
and east of the Bahamas, mainly along 22N. Weak low pressure of
1010 mb is at the east end of the trough. No significant
convection is occurring with the trough, however, isolated
showers are possible near the low. Overnight ASCAT data passes
highlight moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to the north
of the trough from 24N to 27N and between 58W-72W. Light to gentle
mostly easterly winds are elsewhere north of the trough. Seas in
the range of 5-7 ft are north of 25N between 55W-70W and seas of
3-5 ft are elsewhere west of 55W, except for lower seas of 2 ft or
less within the area of the Bahamas Island and west from to the
Straits of Florida.

In the eastern part of the area, what was earlier a weakening
cold front has transitioned to a trough that is analyzed from near
31N31W to 26N40W and to near 23N50W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm east and southeast of the
trough north of about 25N. An overnight ASCAT data pass detected
fresh southwest to west winds east of the trough to near 29N and
north of 24N. Seas over these waters are 8-11 ft in northwest to
north swell. Seas of 8-10 ft also due to northwest to north swell
are west of the trough to near 55W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, with its related
gradient allowing for gentle to moderate southerly winds, except
for gentle to moderate trade winds south of 13N and east of
the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will begin to slowly move southeastward as a cold front reaching
from near 31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida this morning where it will
stall. The frontal boundary will then weaken through late Mon and
dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds
are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late
Thu as weak low pressure forms along a stalled out boundary
offshore the Georgia southeast coast.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net