[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
1211 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**POWERFUL HURRICANE IAN EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Coastal Volusia and Inland Volusia
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Okeechobee, Orange,
      Osceola, and Seminole

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland
      Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 415 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL or about 400
      miles south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 23.0N 83.5W
    - Storm Intensity 115 mph
    - Movement North at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 AM, Major Hurricane Ian was located over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, about 400 miles south-southwest of Orlando or
415 miles south-southwest of Leesburg. Ian's maximum sustained winds
are 115 mph, making it a Category Three on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is moving north at 10 mph. Ian is forecast
to continue north around 10 mph today before turning north-northeast
and slowing in forward speed tonight into Wednesday.

Re-strengthening of Ian is forecast, beginning this afternoon and
continuing through Wednesday, before approaching the southwest coast
of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening.

As Ian approaches, tropical storm conditions will develop across
interior locations of east central Florida on Wednesday, spreading
northeastward to the Florida east coast Wednesday night into Thursday.
With Ian's track continuing to shift southeastward, larger portions of
east central florida and adjacent coastal waters will experience
tropical storm conditions. Potential continues to increase for
hurricane conditions in squalls near the center of Major Hurricane
Ian, especially from Lake George to Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all east central Florida
counties and adjacent Atlantic waters. A Hurricane Watch continues for
Lake County, in addition to an expansion of the Hurricane Watch that
includes Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. There is
potential that a Hurricane Warning may be needed in these counties,
depending on future track forecasts for Ian.

Significant flooding impacts are expected and will begin as soon as
today, with wind impacts arriving as early as mid day Wednesday across
interior locations.

Significant to extensive wind impacts are expected with the onset of
Tropical Storm Force wind gusts associated with the outer bands of
Ian, beginning Wednesday mid day and continuing into Thursday. Wind
impacts may linger into Friday morning across north-central portions
of east central Florida, generally from Orlando and Cape Canaveral
northward. Further adjustments in the track and forward speed of Ian
will lead to adjustments in how long Tropical Storm Force wind gusts
remain over east central Florida.

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected through Friday morning across
east central Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts are forecast to
range from 6 to 12 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches. A Flood
Watch continues for all of east central Florida through late Thursday
night. Additional areal and river flooding is expected across much of
the area.

The environment will also become increasingly favorable for the
development of tornadoes across east central Florida this afternoon
through early Friday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff
      may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
      rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers
      may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Volusia and North Brevard counties. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

BS/JP
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