[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 271548
HLSTAE
FLZ015-114-115-118-127-128-134-272100-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL092022
1148 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 /1048 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IAN MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Franklin,
      Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, and Inland Dixie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 470 miles south-southeast of Indian Pass or about 430
      miles south of Suwannee River
    - 23.0N 83.5W
    - Storm Intensity 115 mph
    - Movement North or 5 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 11am EDT Hurricane Ian has has entered the eastern Gulf of
Mexico as a category 3 hurricane. Ian is still forecast to
strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico before beginning to weaken as it approaches the northeast
Gulf. The forecast track has again shifted slightly eastward, but
Ian is still forecast to pass near the Sarasota area before
continuing to the north-northeast over the northern Florida
Peninsula.

Although the track forecast for Ian has continued to shift slightly
south and east, the wind field is forecast to expand in size meaning
the southeast Florida Big Bend still has the potential for tropical
storm force winds and perhaps even hurricane force wind gusts. There
remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast of Ian beyond the
next couple of days, and we will have a better idea of specific
impacts once the track and intensity forecasts become more clear.

A fairly tight rainfall gradient is forecast on the western side of
Hurricane Ian, therefore the rainfall forecast remains fairly
uncertain until the track forecasts become more certain. With the
current forecast, widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches with
isolated higher amounts is possible across the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is possible from south central
Georgia to the rest of the Florida Big Bed, with rainfall totals
quickly dropping off further west.

The Storm Surge Watch remains unchanged. Tropical Storm Watches are
in effect for all coastal zones from Indian Pass east towards the
Suwanee River and inland Dixie County. A Storm Surge watch is in
effect from the Aucilla River east to the Suwanee River. Tropical
Storm Warnings have been added for our marine zones in the Gulf of
Mexico.

Forecast uncertainty still remains high with Ian, but we will be
able to provide additional details on Ian over the next several
advisory cycles.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Apalachee Bay Coast from Aucilla River east towards
the Suwanee River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Apalachee Bay from the Aucilla River
west to Indian Pass.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across southwest.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the Florida Big Bend.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time
across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern
Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5pm, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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