[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FIONA...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona is centered near 44.5N 60.8W at
24/0300 UTC or 120 nm E of Halifax, Nova Scotia and moving N at
40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas are peaking
at 58 to 63 ft near the center. On the forecast track, Fiona will
move across eastern Nova Scotia overnight, the Gulf of St.
Lawrence on Sat and then over Labrador into the Labrador Sea on
Sun. Dangerous storm surge is expected along the coast of Atlantic
Canada near the path of Fiona. Large swells generated by Fiona
are affecting Atlantic Canada, the east coast of the United
States, Bermuda and northwestern Bahamas. The swells are likely to
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

GASTON...

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 38.9N 29.5W at 24/0300 UTC
or 45 nm WNW of Faial Island in the Central Azores, and moving SW
at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking at
23 to 25 ft near the center. A turn toward the W is anticipated
on Sat, which will bring Gaston over portions of the western
Azores through Saturday morning. Swells generated by Gaston are
expected to affect portions of the Azores through Sat, prolonging
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

HERMINE...

Tropical Storm Hermine is centered near 19.4N 20.8W at 24/0300
UTC or 275 nm NE of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving N at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking at 10 to 12
ft near and NE of the center. Numerous moderate convection is seen
from 19N to 22N between the Western Sahara-Mauritania coast and
12W. A northward motion will remain through Sat night before a
turn toward the NE on Sun. Some strengthening is possible through
Sat night with weakening expected on Sun, and Hermine could become
a remnant low on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Ian...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 14.8N 72.0W at
24/0300 UTC or 335 nm SE of Kingston, Jamaica and moving WNW at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking
at 8 to 10 ft near and NE of the center. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 72W
and 76W. A WNW to W motion will continue through early Sun, then
follow by NNW turn by late Mon. On this forecast track, Ian will
move across the central Caribbean Sea through Sat, pass SW of
Jamaica on Sun, and then very close to the Cayman Islands Sun
night through early Mon. Gradual intensification is forecast for
the next few days, and Ian could become a hurricane Sun night.
Swells generated by Ian will impact Jamaica, the Cayman Islands
and Cuba over the next several days, causing life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves presence based on the latest
analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the Cabo
Verde Islands at 15N22W through a 1009 mb low centered near
11N37W to 09N48W. An ITCZ then continues from 09N48W to southeast
of Barbados at 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up
to 150 nm north and 50 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
Similar conditions are occurring farther south of the monsoon
trough from 05N to 09N between Guinea-Sierra Leone-Liberia coast
and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Ian, which is anticipated to impact the Gulf early next week.

A cold front extends westward from near Cape Coral, FL to the
east-central gulf at 27N86W, then continues northwestward as a
stationary front to near New Orleans, LO. Isolated thunderstorms
are present near the cold front. A surface trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the central and
eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 3
to 4 ft are evident offshore from the Florida Big Bend area.
Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian currently in the Caribbean
Sea is forecast to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early
Tue morning as a hurricane. Conditions will likely begin to
deteriorate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
In the meantime, a cold front will continue to slowly drift
southward before stalling across the east-central Gulf through the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Ian moving across the basin.

Convergent E to ESE winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near and south of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, and along the Mexico-Belize-Honduras coast. Outside the
influence of Tropical Storm Ian, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident across the
central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail for the western basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian will move to 14.7N 73.9W Sat
morning, 15.1N 76.3W Sat evening, and 16.1N 78.4W Sun morning.
Tropical Storm Ian will be at 17.6N 80.1W Sun evening, strengthen
to a hurricane near 19.3N 81.5W Mon morning, and reach 21.2N 82.4W
Mon evening. Hurricane Ian will change little in intensity as it
moves to the southeast Gulf of Mexico late Tue. Deteriorating
marine conditions can be expected near the track of Ian, including
the central Caribbean tonight through early Sun, and portions of
the northwest Caribbean later on Sun through Tue. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will impact Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands this weekend, in addition to portions of Hispaniola.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Post-tropical
Cyclone Fiona, Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine in the
Atlantic Basin.

A cold front curves west-southwestward from east of Bermuda across
31N63W and West Palm Beach, Fl. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found up to 60 nm north and 30 nm south of this
feature. Convergent southerly winds east of the front are
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
25N between 57W and 66W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft in
northerly swell are seen north of 26N between 56W and the cold
front. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to
10 ft are noted behind the cold front to beyond 31N. Near the
Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas at 4
to 6 ft are present north of 26N between NW African coast and 35W.
Outside the main influence of Tropical Storm Hermine, fresh to
strong NNE to NE winds with 9 to 11 ft seas exist from 22N to 26N
between the Western Sahara-Mauritania coast and 23W Moderate to
fresh with locally strong southerly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are
noted from 13N to 17N between the Senegal- Guinea Bissau coast and
22W. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is supporting mainly gentle
ENE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 11N between 23W/35W and
the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Post-tropical Cyclone Fiona has now
moved well N of the area and swell impacts will continue to
diminish. Swells generated by Fiona are currently reaching as far
south as 23N and as far east as 56W. Tropical Storm Ian currently
in the Caribbean Sea is expected to moves into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Tue as a hurricane. Impacts from Ian may
affect Atlantic waters offshore from Florida early next week.

$$

Chan
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