[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FIONA

Hurricane Fiona is centered near 39.6N 61.0W at 23/2100 UTC or
320 nm SSE of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNE at 35 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. seas are peaking to 20 ft with
this system. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
approach Nova Scotia later this evening, move across Nova Scotia
and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across
Labrador and over the Labrador Sea by late Sunday. Swells
generated by Fiona are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
eastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells will reach
Atlantic Canada this evening. The swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

GASTON

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.6N 28.7W at 23/2100
UTC or 60 nm N of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving S at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over
portions of the Azores through early Saturday. Swells generated
by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

HERMINE

Tropical Storm Hermine is centered near 18.6N 20.5W at 23/2100
UTC or 250 nm NE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some strengthening is
possible through tomorrow, with weakening expected on Sunday, and
Hermine could become a remnant low on Monday. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 13N to 22N between 17N-22N.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

T.D. NINE

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 14.7N 71.3W at 23/2100
UTC or 370 nm ESE of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking to 9 ft
at this time with this system. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 71W and 79W. On the
forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move
across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of
Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman
Islands on Sunday night and early Monday. The depression is
expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. More significant
intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. Swells
generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the newly formed Tropical Depression Ten located over the
far eastern Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N23W to 08N43W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N14N between 30W and 41W, and from 09N to 14N
between 42W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NE gulf from 28N83W to 29N90W.
Scattered showers are noted with the part of the front that
extends across the Florida peninsula. The pressure gradient across
the area supports gentle to moderate winds throughout the basin,
with low seas of 1-3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west across the
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, T.D. Nine is near 14.7N 71.3W 1006 mb at 5 PM
EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.8N 73.1W Sat
morning, move to 15.0N 75.4W Sat afternoon, 15.6N 77.6W Sun
morning, 16.8N 79.7W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near
18.8N 81.2W Mon morning, and 20.7N 82.3W Mon afternoon. Nine will
change little in intensity as it moves near 24.4N 83.2W Tue
afternoon. Conditions will likely begin to deteriorate across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. In the meantime, the
cold front will continue to drift southward before stalling across
the east-central Gulf through the weekend. Gentle to moderate
winds can be expected near the front with light to gentle winds
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
T.D. Nine.

The eastern section of the east Pacific monsoon trough is
inducing scattered moderate convection over Central America. Some
of this activity is also affecting the Gulf of Honduras. Light
to gentle winds prevail across the western and central Caribbean,
west of 72W. Seas in this area are 1-2 ft. Fresh to near-gale
force winds and seas of 5-10 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean
in association with the T.D.

For the forecast, T.D. Nine is near 14.7N 71.3W 1006 mb at 5 PM
EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.8N 73.1W Sat
morning, move to 15.0N 75.4W Sat afternoon, 15.6N 77.6W Sun
morning, 16.8N 79.7W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near
18.8N 81.2W Mon morning, and 20.7N 82.3W Mon afternoon. Nine will
change little in intensity as it moves near 24.4N 83.2W Tue
afternoon. Deteriorating marine conditions can be expected near
the track of Nine, including the central Caribbean tonight through
early Sun, and portions of the northwest Caribbean later on Sun
through Tue. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands this weekend, in addition to
portions of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Fiona, T.S. Gaston, and T.S. Hermine over the far eastern
Atlantic.

Outside the special features, a cold front has entered the area
from near 31N69W to 28N80W. Fresh northeast winds and seas of
8-10 ft are behind the front. Isolated showers are near the front
north of 28N. Surface high pressure ridging prevails across most
of the basin, north of 20N and east of 60W, anchored by a 1022 mb
high pressure centered just north of the area near 33N41W. Moderate
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the central Atlantic between
40W-60W. MOderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern
Atlantic outside of T.S. Hermine.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Fiona will become
extratropical and move to 44.0N 60.6W Sat morning. Swells
generated by Fiona are currently reaching as far south as 23N and
as far east as 56W. As Fiona continues to move farther away from
the forecast waters, swell from this system will gradually move
eastward and subside. By Mon morning, conditions should improve.
Impacts from T.D. Nine, currently in the E Caribbean, may affect
areas offshore Florida early next week.

$$
ERA
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