[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FIONA...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona is centered near 46.0N 61.0W at
24/0900 UTC or 140 nm NE of Halifax Nova Scotia moving N at 23
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Seas are
peaking to 63 ft near the center. On the forecast track, Fiona
will move across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this morning, Labrador
today and tonight, then the Labrador Sea into Sun. Dangerous storm
surge is expected along the coast of Atlantic Canada near the
path of Fiona. Large swells generated by Fiona are affecting
Atlantic Canada, the east coast of the United States, Bermuda and
northwestern Bahamas. The swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

GASTON...

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 38.6N 30.2W at 24/0900
UTC or 70 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving WSW
at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are
peaking near 22 ft near the center. Gaston has now turned WSW, and
this continued motion should keep Gaston moving through the
western Azores today. Swells generated by Gaston are expected to
affect portions of the Azores today, prolonging life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

HERMINE...

Tropical Storm Hermine is centered near 20.2N 20.8W at 24/0900
UTC or 310 nm NE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving N at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking at 12
ft near and N of the center. Numerous moderate convection is seen
from 19N to 25N between the Western Sahara-Mauritania coast and
20W. A northward motion will continue through tonight before a
turn toward the NE Sun. Some weakening expected Sun, and Hermine
could become a remnant low on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

IAN...

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 14.7N 73.5W at 24/0900 UTC
or 270 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica moving W at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking at 8 to 10
ft near and NE of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 72W and 77W.
A W to WNW motion is expected through early Sun, followed by a NW
turn late Sun, and a NNW turn by late Mon. On this forecast
track, Ian will move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass
SW of Jamaica on Sun, and then very close to the Cayman Islands
Sun night through early Mon. Ian is likely to approach western
Cuba Mon. Strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and
Ian is likely to become a hurricane by Sun night. Swells
generated by Ian will impact Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba
over the next several days, causing life- threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the Cabo
Verde Islands at 15N22W through a 1009 mb low centered near
12N37W to 09N48W. An ITCZ then continues from 09N48W to southeast
of Barbados at 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection extends along
the entire length of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, from 04N to 13N.
...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the eastern Gulf early
next week.

A cold front has stalled early this morning, and now stretches
from near Fort Myers, Florida to SE Louisiana. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within about 30 nm of this boundary.
Convection previously associated with a low pressure trough in the
eastern Bay of Campeche has diminished early this morning.
Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are evident
offshore from the Florida Big Bend area. Mainly gentle ENE to ESE
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian will move to 14.6N 75.2W
this afternoon, 15.2N 77.4W Sun morning, and 16.5N 79.4W Sun
afternoon. Tropical Storm Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near
18.2N 81.0W Mon morning, reach 20.2N 82.4W Mon afternoon, and
22.0N 83.3W Tue morning. Hurricane Ian will change little in
intensity as it moves through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
early Wed. Conditions will likely begin to deteriorate across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian moving across the basin.

Aside from convection in association with Tropical Storm Ian,
activity across the basin has diminished early this morning.
Mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the
central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail for the western basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian will move to 14.7N 73.9W Sat
morning, 15.1N 76.3W Sat evening, and 16.1N 78.4W Sun morning.
Tropical Storm Ian will be at 17.6N 80.1W Sun evening, strengthen
to a hurricane near 19.3N 81.5W Mon morning, and reach 21.2N 82.4W
Mon evening. Hurricane Ian will change little in intensity as it
moves to the southeast Gulf of Mexico late Tue. Deteriorating
marine conditions can be expected near the track of Ian, including
the central Caribbean tonight through early Sun, and portions of
the northwest Caribbean later on Sun through Tue. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will impact Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands this weekend, in addition to portions of Hispaniola.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Post-
tropical Cyclone Fiona and Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine in
the Atlantic Basin.

A weak cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to the northwest
Bahamas, where it becomes stationary and extends to near Boca
Raton, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
about 30 nm of this boundary. A band of convergence is also
inducing scattered moderate convection from 31N59W to 24W65W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Ahead of the front, N of 27N and W of 51W, moderate SW winds
prevail with seas of 9 to 13 ft in northerly swell. Behind the
front, moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to
10 ft are noted. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NE
to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of 26N
between NW African coast and 35W. Outside the main influence of
Tropical Storm Hermine, fresh NNE to NE winds with 8 to 10 ft
seas exist from 22N to 26N between the Western Sahara- Mauritania
coast and 23W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft
seas are noted from 13N to 17N between the Senegal- Guinea Bissau
coast and 22W. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is supporting gentle
to locally moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of
11N between 23W/35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, swell generated by Post-Tropical
Cyclone Fiona continues to propagate southward to around 25N and
as far E as 55W. Tropical Storm Ian is near 14.7N 73.5W 1003 mb at
5 AM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Ian will move to 14.6N 75.2W this afternoon,
15.2N 77.4W Sun morning, and 16.5N 79.4W Sun afternoon. Tropical
Storm Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N 81.0W Mon
morning, reach 20.2N 82.4W Mon afternoon, and 22.0N 83.3W Tue
morning. Hurricane Ian will change little in intensity as it moves
through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early Wed. Impacts from
Ian may affect areas offshore Florida early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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