[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 16.6N 53.0W at 15/0900 UTC
or 500 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving W at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are currently peaking
near 27 ft with 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the NW quadrant,
120 nm in the NE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SE quadrant. Numerous
strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 48W and 53W. Fiona
will generally move westward for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona is forecast to move through
the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and move near
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next few days. Fiona is expected
to produce heavy rainfall that could lead to flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Swells
generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the northern
Leeward Islands by early Friday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the T.S. Fiona
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 17W, from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 14W and 19W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 33W, from 20N
southward, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 16N to 20N, between 28W and 34W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 80W, from Cuba southward
to Panama, moving W at 10 kt. A line of strong convection is noted
from 10N to 14N between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 15N to 22N between 78W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 12N28W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to
06N49W. Isolated convection is noted within 60 nm of ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf, from Crystal
River, FL to 28N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along this boundary. Moderate E-NE winds are noted north of the
stationary front. A trough extends along the Mexico coast in the
western Bay of Campeche. Another trough extends off the SW Florida
coast. Widely isolated showers and thunderstorms are also
observed throughout the basin. Outside of convection, gentle to
moderate easterly trade winds dominate with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
by the weekend. High pressure will build over the southeast U.S.
following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
breezes and slight seas into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to impact the northeast Caribbean.
Please refer to the Special Features Section for more details.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly flow is noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 3-5
ft in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.6N 53.0W 1002
mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt. Fiona will move to 16.7N 54.7W this afternoon, 16.8N
57.3W Fri morning, 17.0N 59.8W Fri afternoon, 17.2N 62.3W Sat
morning, 17.4N 64.4W Sat afternoon, and 17.7N 66.1W Sun morning.
Fiona will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.8N
68.6W by early Mon. Expect increasing winds and squalls over the
NE Caribbean by Fri and into the weekend. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Fri as
high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of a tropical
wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to impact portions of the
Atlantic and northeast Caribbean. Please refer to the Special
Features Section for more details.

Outside of impacts from Tropical Storm Fiona, the Atlantic basin
is predominately under the influence of high pressure. In the
western Atlantic, a stationary boundary off the northeast Florida
with a pre-frontal trough extending off the central Florida coast.
These boundaries are causing scattered moderate convection N of
22N and W of 74W. Winds are generally gentle to moderate with 3-5
ft seas. Another stationary boundary in the central Atlantic
extends from 31N39W to 26N52W. Winds are gentle to moderate with
5-7 ft seas in a northerly swell. In the eastern Atlantic,
moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.6N
53.0W 1002 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Fiona will move to 16.7N 54.7W this
afternoon, 16.8N 57.3W Fri morning, 17.0N 59.8W Fri afternoon,
17.2N 62.3W Sat morning, 17.4N 64.4W Sat afternoon, and 17.7N
66.1W Sun morning. Fiona will change little in intensity as it
moves to near 18.8N 68.6W by early Mon. Expect increasing winds,
seas and squalls near the cyclone over the next few days. A
stationary front is draped off the northeast Florida coast. Expect
this front to linger near this area through most of the weekend,
bringing moderate northerly winds behind it along with showers and
thunderstorms.

$$
AReinhart
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