[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 16.6N 54.3W at 15/1500 UTC
or 430 nm E of the Leeward Islands and moving W at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are currently peaking
at 20 to 22 ft near and northeast of the center. Numerous
moderate convection is noted just east and southeast of the center
from 15N to 18N between 51W and 53W. Some slight strengthening is
possible with Fiona during the next few days. Fiona will move
westward with a slight decrease in forward speed through late Sat,
then turn toward the west-northwest on Sun. This will bring Fiona
across the northern Leeward Islands late Fri night and early Sat,
near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Sat into Sun, and
then near eastern Hispaniola on Mon. Fiona is expected to produce
heavy rainfall that could lead to flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in higher terrains across the
aforementioned locations. Swells generated by Fiona are expected
to begin affecting the northern Leeward Islands by early Friday.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the T.S. Fiona
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from just south of
Dakar at 14N southward, and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 18W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 20N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 16N to 19N between 30W and 37W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from southern Cuba
southward to Panama, and moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from western Cuba
southward to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Mauritania-Senegal border, passing south of the Cabo Verde
Islands at 13N24W to 16N39W. Scattered showers are found well
south of the trough from 01N to 03N between 15W and 18W, and along
the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast. There is no ITCZ present based on
the latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from just north of Tampa, FL
to southwest of New Orleans, LO. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted up to 60 nm along either side of the
front. Surface troughing is generating similar weather along the
western and southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across
the northern Gulf, north of 28N. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
by the weekend. High pressure will build over the southeast U.S.
in the wake of the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
breezes and slight seas through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to impact the northeast Caribbean.
Please refer to the Special Features Section for more details.

Pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and Tropical Storm
Fiona is creating a trad-wind surge at the northeastern basin,
causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto
Rico, the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE
trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are found over the northeastern and
central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fiona will move to near 17N59W
Fri morning, 17N63W Sat morning, 18N67W Sun morning, and 19.5N
68.5W Mon morning. Expect increasing winds and squalls over the
northeastern Caribbean by Fri and into the weekend. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the central Caribbean
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to impact portions of the
Atlantic and northeast Caribbean. Please refer to the Special
Features Section for more details.

A stationary front extends southwestward from a 1016 mb low off
the Carolina coast across 31N77W to near Daytona Beach, FL.
Farther south, a surface trough stretches southwestward from the
same low across 31N76W to near Fort Pierce, FL. These features are
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from southern
Florida/northwest Bahamas northeastward to beyond 31N76W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of
3 to 6 ft in residual northerly swell, north of 23N between the
northwestern African coast and 70W. To the west, gentle to
moderate SE to SW to NW winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are seen from
the Bahamas northward between 70W and the Georgia/Florida coast.
Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Fiona, gentle to moderate
NE to E trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist from 10N to 23N
between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and near the Cabo Verde
Islands from 15N to 23N between the central African coast and 40W.
Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Fiona will move to
near 17N59W Fri morning, 17N63W Sat morning, 18N67W Sun morning,
and 19.5N 68.5W Mon morning. Expect increasing winds, seas and
squalls near the path of Fiona. A stationary front is draped off
the northeast Florida coast. Expect this front to linger near this
area through most of the weekend, bringing moderate NE winds
north of it along with showers and thunderstorms.

$$

Chan
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