[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150417
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0410 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fiona was centered near 16.7N
52.0W at 15/0300 UTC or about 650 nm E of the Leeward Islands
moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
The maximum significant wave height is 14 ft and 12 ft seas
extend up to 105 nm in the NE and NW quadrant, and 30 nm in the SE
quadrant. Tropical Storm watches have been issued for portions of
the Leeward Islands. Fiona is forecast to move through the
Leeward Islands late Friday and be near the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Expect total
rainfall accumulation of 3 to 5 inches with localized areas up to
8 inches across these islands. Due to a marginal environment,
additional strengthening of storm will likely be slow to occur
during the next day or so, but the intensity forecast remains
uncertain.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the T.S. Fiona
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 15W, from 02N to
15N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 12N, between 12W and 27W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W, from 05N to
20N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 15N to 19N, between 30W and 33W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 78W, from Panama to Cuba,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
11N to 13N, between 77W and 83W. Widely isolated and weak
convection is noted elsewhere in the central and NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 07N41W. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf, from Crystal
River, FL to 28N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along this boundary. Widely isolated showers and thunderstorms
are also observed throughout the basin. Outside of convection,
gentle to moderate easterly trade winds dominate with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, The stationary front will gradually dissipate
by the weekend. High pressure will build over the southeast U.S.
following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
breezes and slight seas into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to impact the Leeward Islands
late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Please,
refer to the Special Features Section for more details.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh easterly
flow across the majority of the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft in the
eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.7N 52.0W 1002 mb
at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt. Fiona will move to 16.9N 53.8W Thu morning, 17.1N
56.3W Thu evening, 17.2N 58.9W Fri morning, 17.3N 61.5W Fri
evening, 17.6N 63.8W Sat morning, and 17.8N 65.8W Sat evening.
Fiona will move inland over 18.7N 68.6W by late Sun. Expect
increasing winds and squalls over the NE Caribbean by Fri and into
the weekend. Otherwise, winds and seas will slightly increase
tonight over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north
of the area in the wake of a tropical wave. Northerly swell moving
through the Atlantic passages will gradually subside through
tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to impact the Leeward Islands
late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Please,
refer to the Special Features Section for more details.

Outside of impacts from Tropical Storm Fiona, the Atlantic basin
is predominately under the influence of high pressure. In the
western Atlantic, a stationary boundary and surface trough are
causing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N, between 72W
and 81W. Outside of thunderstorm activity, winds are generally
gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. Another stationary boundary
in the central Atlantic extends from 31N39W to 27N51W. Winds are
gentle to moderate with 5-7 ft seas in a northerly sell. In the
eastern Atlantic, moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.7N
52.0W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Fiona will move to 16.9N 53.8W Thu
morning, 17.1N 56.3W Thu evening, 17.2N 58.9W Fri morning, 17.3N
61.5W Fri evening, 17.6N 63.8W Sat morning, and 17.8N 65.8W Sat
evening. Fiona will move inland over 18.7N 68.6W by late Sun.
Expect increasing winds, seas and squalls near the cyclone over
the next few days. A cold front may move into the waters off
northeast Florida and stall by the end of the week into the
weekend.

$$
Flynn
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