[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 16.8N 50.5W at 14/2100
UTC or 650 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving W at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking 13 ft within 90 nm
in the N semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within about 150 nm SE and 45nm NW semicircles. On the forecast track,
the center of the system is forecast to move through the Leeward
Islands late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Some gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday. The depression is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches across the northern Leeward
Islands, the British and U.S.Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Interests in
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches will
likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands this
evening or overnight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.D.
Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 31W from 20N southward, moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the northern end of
the wave axis, particularly from 15N-18N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from eastern Cuba southward
across Jamaica to near the Colombia/Panama border, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 11N30W to 09N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 09N between 20W-26W. There is no ITCZ present based
on this analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Costa Rica,
Panama and northwest Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends across northern Florida and the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
noted over Florida ahead of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary over the Gulf
waters. The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to
locally fresh NE winds in the wake of the front while mainly gentle
to moderate winds prevail ahead of the front. Higher winds are
noted near the thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. Seas are
generally 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
late this week. High pressure will build over the southeast U.S.
following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
breezes and slight seas into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression Seven is forecast to impact the Leeward
Islands late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Please, refer to the
Special Features Section for more details.

Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, including the Isle of
Youth, and over the Yucatan peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft
is helping to induce this convective activity. A tropical wave
is also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over
eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Some shower activity is noted over the
Leeward Islands and regional waters.

Satellite derived wind data show gentle to moderate trades across
the basin with the exception of moderate to fresh winds between
Hispaniola and northern Colombia, including also the Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft S of 18N E of 81W, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven is forecast to strengthen
to a tropical storm overnight near 17N52W, move to near 17N60W
Fri afternoon, near 17.5N 64.5W Sat afternoon, and near 18.5N
68.5W Sun afternoon. Expect increasing winds and squalls over the
NE Caribbean with this cyclone. Otherwise, winds and seas will
increase somewhat starting tonight over the central Caribbean as
high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical
wave. Northerly swell moving through the Atlantic passages will
gradually subside through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Depression Seven is forecast to impact the Leeward
Islands late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Please, refer to the
Special Features Section for more details.

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N76W, and
continues SW to across northern Florida. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over Florida and the NW Bahamas ahead of the
front. A surface trough is south of this front and runs from
29N78W to SE Florida. Light to gentle winds are on either side
of the front with seas of 3-4 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters is under the influence of high pressure with
another stationary front extending from 31N40W to 27N50W. Scattered
showers are near the frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds
are related to this front with seas of 8-10 ft in northerly swell
N of 28N based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, a belt of moderate
to fresh NE-E winds is between high pressure to the N and T.D.
Seven affecting mainly the waters from 15N-22N between 40W-60W.
Seas of 8-9 ft area within these winds. Another area of moderate
to locally fresh NE-E winds is the northern end of the tropical
wave located along 31W with seas of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Seven is forecast
to strengthen to a tropical storm overnight near 17N52W, move to
near 17N60W Fri afternoon, near 17.5N 64.5W Sat afternoon, and
near 18.5N 68.5W Sun afternoon. Expect increasing winds, seas and
squalls near and north of the cyclone. A cold front may move
into the waters off northeast Florida and stall by the end of the
week into the weekend.

$$
GR
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