[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl is centered near 41.2N 53.5W at 10/0900 UTC or
330 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 30 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center of Earl,
with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 38N to 51N
between 42W and 59W. Earl is moving rapidly toward the northeast,
and a significant reduction in forward speed is expected today,
with Earl moving slowly northeastward to the southeast of
Newfoundland tonight through Mon. Earl is forecast to become a
powerful hurricane-force extratropical low this afternoon.
Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Earl's winds
are likely to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sun.
Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sun, after Earl becomes a
post-tropical low. Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda,
portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
in Canada during the next several days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W, from 15N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure area
is along the tropical wave near 08N32W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 30W
and 34W, and from 05N to 07N between 32W and 36W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 48W/49W, from 24N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure area
is along the tropical wave near 24N48.5W, although it is not clear
if there is indeed a closed low and/or if it is more mid-level.
Convection has really developed overnight with numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection noted within 300 nm in the north
quadrant.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania
just north of the border with Senegal near 17N16W to 1010 mb low
pressure near 08N32W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to
08N47W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 48W/49W near
09N49W to 10N54W. Outside of any convection referenced in the
tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 10N between 46W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends extends from the western Florida
Panhandle to the SW Gulf with moderate to fresh southerly winds
ahead of it, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms
supported at the mid to upper levels. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft east
of the trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds are west of the
trough per earlier scatterometer and buoy data. Seas are 1-2 ft
there.

For the forecast, the surface trough will linger into early next
week before finally dissipating midweek. Fresh to locally strong
southerly return flow will prevail just east of the trough through
tonight. Very active weather in showers and thunderstorms will
also persist east of the trough. High pressure will dominate by
midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure is north of the Greater Antilles along
23N extending northwest to northeast of the Bahamas. Moderate to
locally fresh E-SE winds dominate the basin, except light to
gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-5 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, as well as offshore eastern Honduras, and mainly 1-3 ft
elsewhere. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted from 13N to 18N between 78W and 85W, mainly due to a TUTT
low. Deep and intense convection has also developed in the Gulf of
Honduras early this morning to across nearby land areas.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail today,
locally fresh in the south-central Caribbean and offshore eastern
Honduras where winds will increase to fresh to strong by this
evening, and again Sun evening. A surge of fresh to strong
easterly winds may accompany a passing tropical wave from the
central to western Caribbean midweek. Northerly swell will
propagate through Atlantic passages early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high is centered near 25N65W. A ridge extends west-
northwest of the high to northeast of the Bahamas, and east-
northeast of the high to near 31N40W and to a 1020 mb high near
29N30W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas in
NE swell are found under the ridge. Hurricane Earl is very
distant to the north while a trailing trough terminates near
31N57W. A cold front lags behind extending from near Bermuda to
31N70W then transitions to stationary as it extends to near the
border of South Carolina and Georgia. Fresh to strong SW winds and
seas associated with distant Earl of 8-13 ft are found north of
27N between 49W and 63W.

Low pressure of 1013 mb is near 24N48.5W and is also described in
the tropical waves section. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are
found on the northeast side of this feature, while a larger,
surrounding area of 8-11 ft seas in E to SE swell is found from
20N to 29N between 42W and 52W. A cold front is moving through the
eastern Atlantic just north of 31N between the Azores and the
Canary Islands with some associated convection north of 29N
between 23W and 27W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found north of
the monsoon trough to 26N and east of 42W, as well as from 20N to
30N between the coast of Africa and 30W, along with 6-8 ft seas.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure ridge will
prevail from along 23N northwest to just northeast of the the
Bahamas through Sun. A cold front will sink south of 31N late
today and extend from 31N53W to 28N65W to 30N72W Sun morning, then
reach along 26N and dissipate by late Mon. Northeasterly swell
will follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun
through Tue, decaying Wed.

$$
Lewitsky
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