[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Earl is to the north of the area. Earl,
at 10/0300 UTC is near 38.1N 55.9W, or about 985 km to the SSW of
Cape Race in Newfoundland. Earl is moving toward the NE, 045
degrees, 25 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 954
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to
110 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within
300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 30N northward between 50W and
70W. Key messages for Earl are in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion,
under the AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, and the WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
Hazards affecting the land areas: Gusty winds are expected in the
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland during the weekend, after Earl
becomes a post-tropical low pressure center. Swells that are generated
by Earl are affecting Bermuda and parts of the U.S.A. East Coast.
The swells are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
tonight and on Saturday. It is likely for these swells to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please, consult bulletins and charts from your local
weather office. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 15N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1008 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 08N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 02N to
14N between 27W and 37W, and close to the monsoon trough. An upper
level NE-to-SW oriented trough is within 330 nm of the coast of
Africa from 20N northward. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 24N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the tropical wave near 22N. Precipitation: numerous
strong is from 24N to 28N between 46W and 49W, to the north of the
northern end of the tropical wave. An upper level NE-to-SW
oriented trough is from 400 nm to 800 nm to the NW and W of the
47W/48W tropical wave. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania
near 17N16W, to the 1008 mb low pressure center that is along
30W/31W tropical wave, to 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 07N37W,
to 09N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 20W and
26W, and in the remainder of the area that is from 11N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through the central sections of the
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the SE coast of
Texas, beyond the Florida Big Bend. A stationary front continues
northeastward beyond SE Georgia. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 90W eastward, in the Yucatan
Peninsula, in the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, and the northern half of Guatemala. The
southeasternmost part of an inland NW-to-SE oriented Mexico
surface trough extends into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 2
feet to 4 feet are in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface
pressure pattern continues. The winds and the seas are quiet,
away from any convective precipitation.

A surface trough, extending from the Florida Panhandle across the
northern Gulf to south Texas, will drift northwest through the
weekend and meander along the N Gulf coast. A deep layered upper
trough across the central Gulf will support very active weather
along and east of the surface trough through Sun. Fresh to locally
strong southerly return flow will develop across the eastern half
of the basin tonight into Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish
through early next week as a trough lingers across the SW Gulf
and weak high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean Sea is allowing for
moderate or lighter trade winds in the area. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 13N northward from 70W westward. This precipitation
is related to the deep layer trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico.
across the basin. Seas are relatively low, in the 2-4 ft range.

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W at the coast of Colombia,
beyond southern Nicaragua, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from the monsoon trough
southward.

A weak Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward along 23N and then
northwest across the waters NE of the Bahamas. Moderate SE trades
breezes and slight seas prevail across most of the Caribbean this
evening, and locally fresh in the south-central Caribbean. Very
active weather will continue across the far NW Caribbean and
Yucatan Channel through Sat. Fresh to locally strong trade winds
will be in the south-central Caribbean and off Honduras Sat
afternoon through Sun evening. Northerly swell will propagate
through Atlantic passages early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 200 nm to the
ENE of the central Bahamas. A frontal boundary is along 31N/32N
from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 27N northward from 76W westward. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from the Madeira Archipelago, to 32N46W,
to 27N55W, to 18N63W near the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A cold front is along 33N between 20W and 40W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward
between 20W and 40W. From the ridge to the monsoon trough/ITCZ:
expect moderate to fresh trade winds and sea heights that range
from 8 feet to 10 feet. From the ITCZ/monsoon trough southward:
the winds are light, and the sea heights range from 4 feet to 7
feet.

Weak high pressure ridge will prevail from along 23N NW to the
Bahamas through Sun. A cold front will sink south of 31N late Sat
and extend from 31N53W to 28N65W to 30N72W Sun morning, then reach
along 26N and dissipate by late Mon. Northeasterly swell will
follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun through
Tue, decaying Wed

$$
mt/jl
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net