[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl is centered near 42.9N 53.0W at 10/1500 UTC or 225
nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NNE at 25 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection is confined to the NE quadrant of Earl and
extends outward to 300 nm from the center. A decrease in forward
speed is expected today, with Earl moving slowly northeastward to
the southeast of Newfoundland tonight through Monday. Earl is
forecast to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low
this afternoon. After that, weakening is expected, and Earl's
winds are likely to fall below hurricane force tonight or early
Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is in the Atlantic Ocean along 33W from
03N-21N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure area is
along the tropical wave near 08N33W, where the wave meets the
monsoon trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
270 nm W and 180 nm E of the wave axis from 05N to 14N.

A tropical wave axis is in the Atlantic Ocean from 23N50W to
10N52W, moving W at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time
with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 1012 mb low pressure near 08N33W to 07.5N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 11N59W. Outside of any convection
referenced in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05.5N-12N between 10W-20W. Isolated
moderate convection is seen from 06N-09N between 48W-52.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the west-central Florida Panhandle
WSW to the NW Gulf near 28N94W. Another surface trough extends
from just W of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico NNE to 22N93W to 25N91W. No
significant weather is associated with those troughs. An upper-
level low centered near SE Louisiana extends an upper-level trough
southward to the Bay of Campeche. Upper-level divergence to the
east of the upper-trough combined with high amounts of atmospheric
precipitable water is inducing numerous moderate scattered strong
convection covering the eastern Gulf of Mexico north of 23N and
east of 89W. The strongest of this convection is occurring north
of 25N and east of 87W extending to the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula. Additional moderate to strong convection is noted
within the western portion of the Yucatan Channel off Cancun. No
precipitation is occurring in the western half of the Gulf, where
skies are partly cloudy.

The gradient between the aforementioned surface troughs over the
central Gulf and higher pressure over the western Atlantic is
inducing fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 3-6
ft over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 87W. NOAA buoy 42036 at
28.5N 84.5W recorded 25 kt winds gusting to 31 kt along with 5 ft
seas around 1430 UTC. Over the western half of the Gulf, light to
gentle and variable winds prevail along with seas around 1 ft.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from the western
Florida Panhandle to the NW Gulf will linger into early next week
before finally dissipating midweek. Fresh to locally strong
southerly return flow will prevail just east of the trough through
tonight. Very active weather in showers and thunderstorms will
also persist east of the trough. High pressure will dominate by
midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level divergence and enhanced moisture are present over the
far western Caribbean Sea. As a result, scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring west of 86W in the NW
Caribbean, including over the western portion of the Yucatan
Channel. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are
noted in the SW Caribbean, related to the east Pacific monsoon
trough, from 08N-13N between 76W-80W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen in between the two aforementioned areas of
convection, within 150 nm of the coast of northern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras. Over the northeast Caribbean, trade wind cumulus
is producing isolated showers north of 14.5N between 64W-72W,
including the Virgin Islands and south of the Dominican Republic.

A ridge of high pressure is north of the Greater Antilles along
24N extending northwest to northeast of the Bahamas. A recent
ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh E winds over the south-central
Caribbean from 10.5-18N between 67W-80W. Moderate to locally fresh
SE winds are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate trades prevail
elsewhere, except for light to gentle in the far SW Caribbean.
Seas are 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds
prevail today, fresh in the south-central Caribbean and offshore
Honduras, where winds will increase to fresh to strong by this
evening, and again Sun evening. A surge of fresh to strong
easterly winds may accompany a passing tropical wave from the
central to western Caribbean midweek. Northerly swell will
propagate through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 30N67W to 31N71W. Moderate to
fresh N winds and seas of 6-8 are N of the front. Fresh SW winds
are within 300 nm east of the front, north of 29N between 53W-60W.
Scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm SE of the
cold front, east of 60W and north of 29N. Additional moderate
showers are noted from 27N-29N between 55W-58W. A 1019 mb high
pressure is near 24N59W. A surface ridge extends from 26N54W to
24N59W to 26N70W to 28N74W. Gentle or weaker winds and 4-6 ft seas
are near the ridge axis. A surface trough extends along 50W from
23N-28N. The surface trough is moving toward the NNW. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 26N-31N between 45W-51W. Farther
east, a 1024 mb high pressure is analyzed near 30N36W. This high
is located along a surface ridge axis that extends from 28N23W to
28N30W to 30N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of
27N between 19W-28W ahead of a cold front located north of the
area. The highest seas in the basin, 8 to 11 ft, are located from
29N-31N between 53W-60W, and from 23N-31N between 45W-53W. These
seas are the result of swell from Hurricane Earl and the surface
trough along 50W. An area of fresh trades with 7-8 ft seas is from
15N-25N between 23W-40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge will
prevail from along 24N northwest to just northeast of the the
Bahamas through Sun. The cold front extending from 31N62W to
30N67W to 31N71W will extend from 29N55W to 28N65W to 30N72W Sun
morning, then reach along 26N and dissipate by late Mon.
Northeasterly swell will follow the front and spread across the
area waters Sun through Tue, decaying Wed.

$$
Hagen
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