[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 45.6N 32.9W at 08/0300 UTC or
525 nm NNW of the Azores and moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas are peaking at 30 to 33 ft near
the center. Numerous moderate convection is noted near and up to
100 nm north and east of the center. Interaction with an upper-
level trough and cooler sea surface temperature will sustain the
weakening trend, and Danielle should transition into an
extratropical cyclone on Thu while turning slowly
counterclockwise. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Hurricane Earl is centered near 27.2N 65.5W at 08/0300 UTC or 310
nm S of Bermuda and moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts
to 105 kt. Seas are peaking at 30 to 32 ft near and just northeast
of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
found up to 100 nm within the center. Earl is currently a
Category 2 hurricane, but is forecast to strengthen into a
Category 3 or even 4 Hurricane by Fri. The forecast track brings
Earl to the east of Bermuda Thu night through Fri morning. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A broad 1009 mb low pressure located about 700 nm west of the
Cabo Verde Islands near 18N37W continues to generate scattered
moderate convection from 17N to 22N between 33W and 38W. An area
of fresh to strong easterly winds with 10 to 12 ft seas are seen
near and just north and east of the low. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system over
the next several days. There is a high chance for this system to
become a tropical depression over the next 48 hours. Please refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from near Dakar,
Senegal southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 16W and 23W,
and also near the coast of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. Development
is not anticipated within the next 48 hours, but there is a low
chance of formation over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 22N southward
through the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section
above, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
present south of the low from 10N to 13N between 33W and 37W.

A weak tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 52W from
20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no
significant convection near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
south of Nouakchott across the Cabo Verde Islands and the low
mentioned in the Special Features section to 13N46W. Aside from
convection associated with the low and tropical waves, there is
no significant convection near this feature. No ITCZ is present
based on the latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters north of Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends southwestward from central Florida to the
central Gulf. Coupling with a broad mid-level low just east of
New Orleans, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring over the north-central, northeastern and east-central
Gulf. Another surface trough over east-central Mexico is producing
similar conditions at the western Bay of Campeche. Other than
gentle to moderate northeasterly winds at the eastern Bay of
Campeche and east-central Gulf, light to gentle winds prevail for
the rest of the Gulf. Seas are at 1 to 3 ft across the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters through Thu night, producing gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf. Broad low
pressure will form over the north-central Gulf early Fri and
induce a moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across
the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and
shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southeasterly winds are generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the Windward Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.
Gentle to locally moderate SE to S winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are
present for the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3
ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being
disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the
area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and
slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean
and off Honduras Fri night through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Earl and a broad low pressure west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin. Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the
broad low pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands, a modest
Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft north of 10N between 46W and the Georgia-Florida
coast/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen
north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 46W. To the
south, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are
evident from 6N to 20N between the central African coast and 46W.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Earl will move to 28.6N
65.0W Thu morning, 30.7N 63.7W Thu evening, then continue north of
the area through late Sat as it becomes extratropical, and
weakens by late Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to
the northwest and west of Earl. Northerly swell associated with
Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. Looking
ahead, a new low pressure system could form near Bermuda by Mon,
prolonging NE swell across the waters south and southeast of
Bermuda.

$$

Chan
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