[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080940
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 46.8N
32.0W at 08/0900 UTC or 570 nm NNW of the Azores moving NE at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are
peaking at 30 ft near the center. Danielle is starting to lose its
tropical characteristics. Scattered moderate convection is limited
to 120 nm of the center in the northeast semicircle. Cool sea surface
temps and interactions with an upper- level trough will force
transition into an extratropical cyclone today while turning
slowly counterclockwise. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Hurricane Earl is centered near 28.2N 65.4W at 08/0900 UTC or
250 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Seas are peaking at 37 ft near and just
northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is found up to 90 nm of the center in the northwest
semicircle. Earl is expected to intensify further and become a
major hurricane today, then continue to the southeast of Bermuda
tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 18N39W continues to
generate scattered moderate convection from 19N to 22N between 34W and
39W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to
strong winds within 240 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant
of the low. Seas are estimated to be 10 to 12 ft in the area of
stronger winds. Convection has weakened over the past several
hours, but environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system over the next several days.
There is a high chance for this system to become a tropical
depression over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 03N to 15N,
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 08N to 10N between 18W and 24W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extend along 39W from 08N to 22N,
through the developing 1009 mb low pressure center at 18N39W,
mentioned in the Special Features section above. The tropical wave
and low pressure are moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 19N to 22N between 34W and
39W.

A weak Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 10N to 20N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no significant convection near the
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Mauritania/Senegal border, the extend to just south of the
Cabo Verde Islands and westward to 1009 mb low pressure near
18N39W mentioned in the Special Features section then on to
15N47W. Aside from convection associated with the low and
tropical waves, there is no significant convection near this
feature. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southwest Caribbean
south of 15N between 75W and 77W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across over the far northeast Gulf from
Horseshoe Beach Florida to 25N85W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also evident over the far southwest
Gulf along another trough off the coast of Veracruz. Isolated
thunderstorms are off southwest Louisiana, along a weak cold front
extending from near Mobile Bay, Alabama to Vermilion Bay,
Louisiana. A weak pressure pattern is maintaining light and
variable breezes across the basin with slight seas.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters through tonight, producing gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad low
pressure will form the north-central Gulf early Fri and induce a
moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across the eastern
half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and
shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southeasterly winds are generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the Windward Islands. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active south of 15N between 75W and
77W. A weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being
disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the
area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and
slight seas across most of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will continue to maintain gentle
to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean
through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to
the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Earl and a broad low pressure near 18N39W.

Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the broad low
pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands, a modest Atlantic ridge
is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
10N west 45W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen north
of 20N between the northwest African coast and 45W. To the south,
gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are
evident south of 20N between the central African coast and 45W.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, Hurricane Earl is near 28.2N 65.4W 969 mb at 5
AM EDT, moving N at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Earl will move to 29.6N 64.8W this afternoon, and
32.0N 63.0W Fri morning. Earl will continue to move north of the
area Fri through late Sat as it becomes extratropical, and weakens
by late Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the NW
and W of Earl. Northerly swell associated with Earl may impact
the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. Looking ahead, a new low
pressure system could form near Bermuda by Mon, prolonging NE
swell across the NE and north- central waters. Farther east,
strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will accompany the
low pressure currently near 18N39W as it moves to the NW to NNW
through Fri. While there is a high chance this low will develop into
a tropical depression over the next couple of days, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development
thereafter, allowing winds and seas to diminish.

$$

Christensen
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