[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 44.9N 34.9W at 07/2100 UTC
or 540 nm NW of the Azores moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt with gusts to 85 kt. Danielle remains a large Category One
hurricane over the far north Atlantic. Seas are peaking near 32
ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 150 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. With an upper level
trough approaching from the W and Danielle entering a zone of much
cooler sea temperatures, gradually weakening is expected. Danielle
is also likely to transition into an extratropical cyclone Thu.
Hurricane Danielle is expected to continue moving NE tonight, but
slow down and begin a counter-clockwise loop Thu that will
continue into Fri. Into the weekend, Danielle should commence a
southeastward motion. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Hurricane Earl is centered near 26.5N 65.5W at 07/2100 UTC or
350 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Earl is currently a Category One hurricane, but is
forecast to strengthen into a Major Hurricane by Fri. Peak seas
are near 32 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 120 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles.

Early is expected to gradually veer to the NE over the next couple
of days and also begin to accelerate in forward motion. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl will pass just N of Bermuda
Thu into early Fri. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane watch
are in effect for Bermuda. Strengthening is forecast for the next
48 to 60 hours, and Earl is forecast to be a Category 3 or
Category 4 hurricane when it is closest to Bermuda. By this
weekend, Earl may begin to transition into an extratropical
cyclone. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda
by tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
near 17N36W or several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity still remains
disorganized, and currently extends from 16N to 21N between 32W
and 37W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system over the next day or two,
and a tropical depression is likely form by Friday while it moves
westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper- level winds
are forecast to become less conducive for development. Currently,
this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over
the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast
along 16W is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern
Atlantic over the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development thereafter as the system
moves west- northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Development is not anticipated within the next 48 hours, but
there is a low chance of formation over the next 5 days. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave
axis from 08N to 14N E of 23W.

A weak tropical wave is near 52W from 10N to 20N, moving west at
around 10 kt. There is no significant convection near the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott at 19N16W, then continues through the Cabo Verde
Islands to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 17N36W, previously
mentioned in the Special Features section, to 14N45W. Aside from
convection associated with the low and previously mentioned
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection has developed from
07N to 11N between 23W and 28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW
Caribbean, particularly S of 12N between 73W and 81W, including
near the coasts of Panama and Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed across the Gulf waters, and extends
from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche. Numerous
moderate to isolateds strong convection is noted along and behind
the trough, encompassing waters E of a line from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Tampico, Mexico. Winds in this zone of
showers and thunderstorms are generally moderate and NE, except
locally higher near the more intense convection. Elsewhere, weak
high pressure is providing light to gentle winds. Seas through the
basin are 1 to 2 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will dominate the Gulf
waters through Thu night, producing gentle to locally moderate
winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad low pressure will
move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce a moderate to locally
fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin
Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead
of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection associated with the outermost
rainbands of Hurricane Earl, centered midway between Puerto Rico
and Bermuda, are impacting the Leeward and Virgin Islands as well
as Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, aside from convection in the far SW
basin depicted in the Monsoon Trough section above, generally dry
conditions prevail.

Mainly light to gentle winds are occurring across the basin, with
the exception of gentle to moderate trades between Venezuela and
15N. Seas are 3-4 ft within this area of winds as well as in and
near the Mona Passage, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere based on recent
altimeter data.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being
disrupted by Hurricane Earl. Earl will continue to move away from
the NE Caribbean while gradually strengthening. This pattern will
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most
of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras Fri
night through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Earl as well as information on low pressure west of the
Cabo Verde Islands that is likely to develop into a tropical
depression.

A surface trough extends from 31N78W to near Melbourne, Florida.
No significant convection is occurring with this trough. Light to
gentle winds dominate waters W of 70W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft,
except 1 to 3 ft in the vicinity and SW of the Bahamas. E of
Earl, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters, with a high pressure center of 1022 mb located SSE of the
Azores near 32N24W. The pressure gradient between this system and
the low pressure situated near 17N36W supports an area of fresh
to strong winds within about 300 nm N of the low center where seas
are in the 8-10 ft range. A band of fresh southwesterly flow is
also noted within 280 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Similar
wind speeds are near the coast of southern Western Sahara. Seas
are generally 5 to 7 ft N of 20N E of 35W. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or less and seas average 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds will diminish across the NE
forecast waters Fri night as Hurricane Earl moves N of the
forecast area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the
NW and W of Earl. Northerly swell associated with Earl may impact
the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. Looking ahead, a new low
pressure system could form near Bermuda by Mon, prolonging NE
swell across the NE and north-central waters.

$$
KONARIK
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