[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Danielle remains a large hurricane over the far north Atlantic. At
07/1500 UTC, Danielle is centered near 43.7N 36.3W or 540 nm NW
of the Azores moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking near 32 ft. Numerous moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles.
Danielle should begin to weaken later today and transition to a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening
anticipated through Saturday. On the forecast track, Danielle is
moving toward the northeast, and this general motion is expected
to continue today. A slow counterclockwise turn is forecast Friday
and early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the south-southeast
to southeast over the weekend.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Hurricane Earl is forecast to be a major hurricane later this
week. At 07/1800 UTC, Hurricane Earl is centered near 26.0N 65.7W
or 380 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
is within 120 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles. Seas are peaking near
30 ft. Earl is moving toward the north, and a continued northward
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north- northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday
night. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
near 16N34.5W or several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity still remains
disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system over the next day or two,
and a tropical depression is likely form by Friday while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds
are forecast to become less conducive for development. Currently,
this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over
the next 48 hours.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast is
forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next
day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development thereafter as the system moves west-
northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The axis of the
tropical wave is analyzed along 15W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 08N to
11.5N between 15W and 19W.

A weak tropical wave is near 51W from 10N to 20N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection near the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then continues through the Cabo Verde Islands to
a 1009 mb low pressure located near 16N34.5W, previously mentioned
in the Special Features section, to 14N45W. No significant
convection is noted other than what has already been described
above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW
Caribbean, particularly S of 11N between 76W and 81W. At this
time, this convective activity is affecting parts of the coast of
Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed across the Gulf waters, and extends
from near Tampa Bay, FL to 26N90W to 24N96W. Numerous showers with
embedded thunderstorms are near and to the N of the trough axis,
with a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection near the
western end of the trough. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity. Recent scatterometer data
indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds in the wake of the
trough, with some wind barbs of 30 kt likely associated with the
thunderstorms activity. Elsewhere, weak high pressure across the
northern Gulf is supporting generally light to gentle breezes and
slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Thu night to produce gentle to locally moderate
winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad low pressure will
move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce a moderate to locally
fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin
Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead
of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Lines of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with the
circulation of Earl are still noted over the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as well as over the NE
Caribbean. Locally heavy rain could result in urban and small
stream flooding, mudslides along steep terrains, and even flash
floods across these islands. Elsewhere, mainly trade wind showers
are noted.

Scatterometer data show mainly light to gentle winds across the
basin, with the exception of gentle to moderate trades just N of
the ABC Islands to about 15N. Seas are 3-4 ft within this area of
winds, and 1-3 ft elsewhere based on recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area is being
disrupted by Hurricane Earl, that will continue to move away from
the NE Caribbean today while gradually strengthening. This
pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to locally
fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off
Honduras Fri night through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Earl.

A surface trough extends from 31N79W across northern Florida to
near the Tampa Bay area, then continues across the Gulf of Mexico
region. Scatterometer data reveal some wind shift related to the
trough axis just off NE Florida. Mainly light to gentle winds are
noted W of 75W, including the NW Bahamas. E of Earl, a ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a
high pressure center of 1024 mb located SSE of the Azores near
32N24W. The pressure gradient between this system and the low
pressure situated near 16N34.5W supports an area of fresh to
strong winds within about 300 nm N of the low center where seas
are in the 8-10 ft range. A band of fresh to strong southwesterly
flow is also noted within 280 nm SE quadrant of the low center.
Similar wind speeds are also seen per satellite derived wind data
near the coast of southern Western Sahara. Seas are generally 6-8
ft N of 20N E of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Earl will move to near
28.5N65W Thu morning, strengthen to a major hurricane Thu evening
near 30.5N64W, move to near 36.5N57W Fri evening, and become
extratropical while weakening by Sun morning near 45N49W. Winds
will diminish across the NE forecast waters by Fri night as Earl
moves N of the forecast area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Northerly swell associated with
Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun.

$$
GR
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