[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Sep 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 43.4N 38.1W at 07/0900 UTC
or 600 nm northwest of the Azores moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking near 30 ft close to
the center. Numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
mainly in the northwest semicircle of the center. Danielle stay a
hurricane as it accelerates to the northeast into Thu, then weaken
over cooler waters as starts to make a slow counter-clockwise
turn Fri and Sat, followed by a turn toward the south-southeast
through early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Hurricane Earl is centered near 25.3N 65.9W at 07/0900 UTC or
430 nm south of Bermuda moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt
with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking at 28 ft near and just NE of
the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
within 120 nm of the center. Earl should continue to move
northward through tonight before turning gradually toward the
north- northeast Thu. Earl is forecast to intensify over the next
couple of day, becoming a major hurricane as it passes to the
southeast of Bermuda Thu and Thu night. Swells generated by Earl
are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through
Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Convection is becoming a little better organized near a 1010 mb low
about 450 nm southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14N31W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of
this system, and there is a medium chance this will form into a
tropical depression over the next couple of days while it moves
westward to west- northwestward at 15 kt. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa, passing through
13W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
05N to 10N between 11W and 16W, and from 04N to 09N between 20W
and 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 04N to 20N,
moving west at 15 kt. A 1010 mb low, discussed above in the
Special Features section, is along the tropical wave at 14N31W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
12N to 19N between 29W and 33W. Refer to the section above for
details on weather and marine conditions, and tropical formation
potential.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 10N to 20N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection
near this wave during this analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, continues through the Cabo Verde Islands and
broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section near
14N31W, then on 10N45W. No significant convection is noted other
than what has already been described above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and
northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting a few coastal showers and
thunderstorms off the Tamaulipas coast south of 23N to Tampico.
The leading edge of a mid/upper level jet is supporting a few
showers and thunderstorms across the north-central Gulf. Showers
and a few thunderstorms are also noted over the east-central Gulf
and over the Straits of Florida, on the periphery of an upper low
over the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas. Weak high pressure across
the northern Gulf is supporting generally light breezes and slight
seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Thu night to produce gentle to locally
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad low
pressure will move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce a
moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across the eastern
half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shift
west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted over the northern
Leeward Islands, associated with lingering convergent flow from
Hurricane Earl, which is now well north of the basin. A few
showers and thunderstorms are also noted near the Isle of Youth on
the periphery of an upper low centered over the Cay Sal area of
the Bahamas, and farther south off Colombia and eastern Panama
related to the monsoon trough in that region. Trade wind
convergence is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands, from Barbados to Grenada to Trinidad.
The Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by
Hurricane Earl, and this pattern is support light to gentle
breezes and slight seas across the Caribbean, except for moderate
easterly breezes over the far southeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, little change is expected. Earl will continue to move away
from the NE Caribbean today while gradually strengthening. This
pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
across most of the Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the
southeast Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane
Earl.

Outside of about 240 nm from the center of Earl, mostly light to
gentle breezes and slight seas dominate the Atlantic area west of
40W. Farther east, an upper trough is supporting showers and
thunderstorms within 120 nm east of a trough from 30N42W to
22N45W. East of that, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
31N35W. Fresh SW winds and moderate seas are noted between the
high pressure and the trough, north of 25N. Elsewhere, fresh to
strong winds and areas of rough seas are within 270 nm of the
developing low near 14N31W. Fresh to strong winds are evident off
northwest Africa as well.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Earl is near 25.3N 65.9W
981 mb at 5 AM EDT, moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Earl will move to 26.4N 65.8W this
afternoon, to 27.9N 65.6W Thu morning, to 29.7N 64.9W Thu
afternoon, and to 31.8N 63.2W Fri morning. Earl will continue to
move north of the area through Sat, and become extratropical over
the north-central Atlantic Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell
associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into
Sun.

Farther east, the broad low southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
will likely become more organized and move west of 35W between 15N
and 20N by tonight, accompanied by strong winds and rough seas
within 90 nm on its north side. Looking ahead, the low and
associated marine conditions are expected to move sharply to the
northwest through the latter part of the week, and cross north of
the area by late Sat before reaching 55W.

$$
Christensen
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