[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 42.7N 39.3W at 07/0300 UTC or
630 nm WNW of the Azores, and moving ENE at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas are peaking at 28 to 30 ft near
the center. Numerous moderate convection is noted within 100 nm
of the center. Danielle is going to maintain a ENE to NE motion
with an increase in forward speed through Thu, then turn toward
the NW. A gradual weakening trend is forecast for the next several
days, possible becoming extratropical by the weekend. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 24.8N 65.8W at 07/0300 UTC
or 450 nm S of Bermuda, and moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt
with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking at 20 to 23 ft near and
just NE of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is found near and west of the center from 24N to 26N
between 65W and 67W. Earl should continue to move northward
through Wed night before turning gradually toward the NNE Thu.
Strengthening is expected to continue and Earl will become a
major hurricane by Thu evening. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is persisting west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands from
11N to 19N between 28W and 38W. This area is associated with a
broad low pressure west-southwest of the islands near 14N31W.
Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found
just east and southeast of the low center from 11N to 15N between
28W and 30W. Environmental conditions are conducive for this
system to develop as it moves west to west- northwestward. There
is a medium chance for it to become a tropical depression over the
next 2 to 5 days. Please, refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook,
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 21N southward
through the broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features
section above, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Refer to the
section above for details on weather and marine conditions, and
tropical formation potential.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 21N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection
near this wave during this analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott through the Cabo Verde Islands and broad low
pressure mentioned in the Special Features section to 08N46W.
Besides convection related to the low, scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 120 nm south of the trough west of 40W;
and near the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and
northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A low to mid-level trough near the east coast of northern and
central Mexico is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the west-central Gulf. An upper-level low near
western Cuba is causing isolated thunderstorms over the
southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. A modest
surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1018 mb high near the
Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is
sustaining light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for much of
the Gulf, except gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
at the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the modest ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Thu night with gentle to locally moderate
winds and slight seas, except for fresh NE winds off the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Broad low pressure will
move into the northwestern Gulf Fri and induce a moderate to
locally fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the
basin Fri night through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent westerly winds well southwest of Hurricane Earl are
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
southern Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to E trades and 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the
south-central basin, and the Windward Passage. Gentle easterly
trades and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is
being disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands near near 24.8N 65.8W 985 mb
at 11 PM EDT moving N at 6 kt. Earl will continue to move away
from NE of the Caribbean tonight while gradually strengthening.
This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight
seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to locally
fresh trade winds will return to the basin Fri night through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane
Earl.

A mid-latitude trough extends southward from Hurricane Danielle
near 43N39W to 28N48W. Together with a surface trough in the
vicinity, scattered moderate convection is flaring up north of 26N
between 37W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Special
Features sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the broad low pressure
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, the weak Atlantic ridge is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
10N between 40W and the Georgia- Florida coast/Lesser Antilles.
Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE
to E trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident north of 17N between
the African coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Earl will move to 25.8N
65.8W Wed morning, to 27.3N 65.6W Wed evening, to 29.1N 65.1W Thu
morning, and to 31.1N 63.8W Thu evening. Earl will change little
in intensity as it moves north of the area into the north central
Atlantic through Sat. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail
to the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell associated
with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun.

$$

Chan
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