[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062244
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 42.5N 40.3W at 06/2100 UTC
or 660 nm WNW of the Azores moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 360 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant and 200 nm from the center elsewhere. Seas of 12 ft or
greater extend outward up to 240 nm of the center, with peak seas
just N of the center of 34 ft. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 24.1N 65.8W at 06/2100 UTC
or 500 nm S of Bermuda moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60
kt with gusts to 75 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 110 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 100 nm in the SE
quadrant, 70 nm SW quadrant, and 90 nm SE quadrant. Seas at or
above 12 ft extend out from the center 150 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm
SE quadrant, 90 nm SW quadrant, and 120 nm NW quadrant, with peak
seas of 24 ft just NE of the center. Numerous strong convection is
noted within 120 of the center in all but the SW quadrant.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm in the NE
quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong,
disorganized, convection extends from 11N to 18N between the Cabo
Verde Islands and 37W. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development of this system, which is forming into a broad
area of low pressure this evening. A tropical depression could
form within a few days while moving W to WNW at 10 to 20 kt over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development late this week.
There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and
a medium chance over the next 5 days. Please, refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 15N between 38W and 51W. A weak surface trough that
had been extending northward from this wave has dissipated this
evening, along with associated convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N16W to 07N45W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described
in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N E of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough with an axis over Texas is helping to induce
scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf, N of 23N and W of
90W. Otherwise, modest high pressure is precluding convection in
the basin. These features are generally supporting light to
gentle breezes and slight sea heights in the Gulf of Mexico.
Locally moderate NE winds are occurring within 120 nm of the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Thu night to produce gentle to locally moderate
winds and slight seas across the basin. Winds will freshen
tonight off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a
local trough that develops each afternoon and evening. Broad low
pressure will move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce a
moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across the
eastern half of the basin Fri night through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level low is leading to scattered moderate convection
within a couple hundred miles of western Cuba. The eastward
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough crosses Panama and
into the far SW Caribbean along 12N. This feature is producing
scattered moderate convection S of 15N and W of 75W. Otherwise,
dry conditions prevail over the basin.

Light to gentle winds dominate most of the sea, but moderate NE
winds are occurring in and near the Windward Passage and offshore
western Venezuela. Slight seas cover the area except for in and
near the Mona Passage, where northerly swell is leading to seas of
3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the typical Atlantic ridge north of the area is
being disrupted by Tropical Storm Earl that is located midway
between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. Early will continue moving away
from the area, and remnant rainbands near Puerto Rico and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands will diminish tonight. In the wake of
Earl, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will prevail
across most of the Caribbean into late week. Moderate to locally
fresh trade winds will return to the basin Fri through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm Earl.

Away from the influence of Earl, a weak pressure gradient is
leading to fairly tranquil conditions across the basin. W of 40W,
generally gentle winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the E of
40W, mainly moderate winds prevail. The tropical wave several
hundred km W of the Cabo Verde Islands, described in more detail
in the Special Features section above, is inducing an area of
fresh winds, with more fresh NE winds occurring near the coast of
northern Africa. Seas in the areas of fresh winds are near 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl will strengthen as
it gradually moves N of the area over the next few days, but
northerly swell generated by Earl will continue to impact northern
waters into the weekend. Otherwise, weak high pressure will
dominate.

$$
KONARIK
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