[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sept 06 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Danielle, at 06/1500 UTC, is near 42.2N
41.2W. Danielle also is about 595 km/321 nm to the north of St.
Thomas, and 960 km/518 nm to the south of Bermuda. Danielle is
moving ENE or 070 degrees 05 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 135 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and
within 200 nm of the center in the remainder of the areas.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Earl, at 06/1500 UTC, is near 23.7N
65.7W. Earl also is about 595 km/321 nm to the north of St.
Thomas, and 960 km/518 nm to the south of Bermuda. Earl is
moving N, or 360 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Tropical storm force winds
are: within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 90
nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 20 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant, and within 70 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights are 12 feet or higher: within 135 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant,
and within 105 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum
sea heights are reaching 24 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong
is within 75 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Scattered
moderate to strong is within 360 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
90 nm of a curved band from 16N67W to the south of Puerto Rico,
to 20N63W 23N62W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the
area that is within 300 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 200 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between the
26W/27W tropical wave and 37W. It is possible that much of this
precipitation may be related more to the monsoon trough than to
the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 24W
and the tropical wave. The environmental conditions are
conducive for some development of this weather system. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form in a few days,
while moving westward to west-northwestward 15 mph to 20 mph, in
the eastern and central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
It is likely for the upper level winds to become less conducive
for development late this week. The chance for development into
a tropical cyclone for this feature, during the next 48 hours,
is medium. Please, refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N between
38W and 51W.
A separate surface trough is from 21N to 30N between 43W and
45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough from 25N
northward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Mauritania, to 13N along the 26W/27W tropical wave,
to 07N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N to 13N from 20W eastward, and from 10N
southward from 51W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows a
trough in east Texas and in the coastal plains of Texas, for the
Gulf coast. A surface trough is in the coastal plains of Texas,
from the Deep South to the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 210 nm of the coasts, from Mexico at 93W, in a clockwise
sense, to Louisiana at 90W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are in the remainder of
the areas that are to the west of the line that runs from the
Florida Big Bend to the northwestern corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the
area, and the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb
high pressure center is near 29N87W. This pattern is supporting
light to gentle breezes, and slight sea heights, in the Gulf of
Mexico.

Weak high pressure will persist across the northern Gulf through
Thu night to produce gentle to locally moderate winds and slight
seas across the basin. The winds will freshen tonight off the
northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to a local trough
that develops each afternoon and evening. Broad low pressure
will move into the northwest Gulf Fri, and induce southerly
return flow across the eastern half of the basin Fri night
through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of
NW Cuba. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that
are from Honduras to 27N in the Gulf of Mexico, between 75W in
the areas of the Bahamas and 91W in the Gulf of Mexico,
including in the Caribbean Sea, in the Atlantic Ocean, in the
Straits of Florida, and in parts of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the northern entrances to the
Windward Passage, mostly due local drainage effects. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere. Slight seas cover the area.

The monsoon trough curves along 12N77W, through and Panama, from
east to west, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N
southward from 75W westward. Broad surface low pressure in
general is in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak Atlantic Ocean ridge, that is to the north of the area,
is being disrupted by T.S. Earl. Earl currently is to the north
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, near 23.7N 65.7W at 11 AM
EDT.
A few showers and thunderstorms are in the Virgin Islands and in
the Leeward Islands today. Earl will continue to move slowly
northward, and away from the Caribbean Sea waters today, while
strengthening gradually. This pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate breezes and slight seas
in most of the Caribbean Sea through the middle of the week.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the basin
from Fri night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large-scale surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the Greater Antilles northward between 60W and the Bahamas,
with Tropical Storm Earl. A surface trough is along 70W from 28N
northward. This feature has been present during the last few
days. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of
large-scale surface cyclonic wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward
between the 30N43W 21N45W surface trough and the 46W tropical
wave, and Tropical Storm Earl. A 1018 mb high pressure center is
near 27N53W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from
40W eastward. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 31N24W.

Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in
the remainder of the area from 45W westward, not counting the
winds that are related to Tropical Storm Earl. A broad area of
moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, follow the 46W tropical wave. Light to
gentle trade winds, and moderate seas, are in the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Earl near 23.7N 65.7W 996 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Earl will
move to 24.4N 65.8W this evening, 25.5N 65.7W Wed morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.8N 65.5W Wed evening, 28.6N
65.0W Thu morning, 30.6N 63.8W Thu evening, and 33.0N 61.4W Fri
morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 39.3N 52.8W early Sat.  Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell
associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri and
Sat.

$$
mt/gr/pp
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