[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 42.1N 41.9W at 06/0900 UTC or
730 nm WNW of the Azores moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Seas are peaking at 34 ft near the center.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
in the southwest semicircle of the center. Danielle is expected to
maintain a NE track through this evening, before turning toward
ENE Wed. Due to cooler sea surface temperature, Danielle should
gradually weaken over the next several days and might transition
into an extratropical system Thu. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml,
and the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 23.4N 65.4W at 06/0900 UTC
or 300 nm N of St. Thomas moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. This is slightly weaker than earlier, due
to strong SW shear. Seas are peaking at 21 ft near and just
northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted near and north of the center from 23N to 25N
between 63W and 65W. Earl is expected to continue on a northward
movement through Wed morning, then turn toward the NNE Wed night
or Thu. Strengthening is forecast and Earl is likely to become a
hurricane tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

In the eastern Atlantic, recent scatterometer passes framed the
eastern and western edges of an elongated low pressure area along
the monsoon trough southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The center
of the 1011 mb low was estimated to be near 14N25W. This is
associated with a tropical wave that move across the islands over
the last couple of days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
evident from 10N to 16N between 25W and 32W. Environmental
conditions are conducive for some development of this system.
There is a medium chance a tropical depression could form over the
next couple of days while moving westward to west- northwestward
at 15 kt over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Upper-
level winds are likely to become less conducive for development
late this week. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave was relocated to 25W from 04N
to 20N, and moving is west around 10 kt. This wave is embedded
within a newly formed broad area of low pressure southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the third paragraph of the Special
Features section above for more information.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 10N to 21N, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection
near this wave on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands to the
1011 mb low centered near 14N25W to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N40W to near Grenada. Aside from convection associated
with the tropical wave and low, scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 10N between 12W and 17W, and from 09N to 11N
between 55W and 58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends into
the southwest Caribbean, and is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Panama- Colombia border, and nearby
Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1017 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. Weak
ridging extends from the high pressure across the northern Gulf.
This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas
across the Gulf. Divergent flow aloft is supporting a few showers
and thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf. Local drainage flow is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of
Veracruz in the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will persist across the
northern Gulf through Thu night maintaining gentle to locally
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Winds will
freshen tonight off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
due to a local trough that develops each afternoon and evening.
Broad low pressure will move into the northwest Gulf Fri and
induce southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin
Fri night through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being
disrupted by T.S. Earl, currently located north of Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands near 23.4N 65.4W at 5 AM EDT, supporting
a few showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin and Leeward
Islands today. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates
moderate to fresh NE winds across the northern entrances to the
Windward Passage, mostly due local drainage effects. This is
likely Buoy, ship, and scatterometer data show light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Similarly, slight seas persist across the basin.
No significant convection is noted across the basin, except off
the Colombia/Panama border area.

For the forecast, Earl will continue to move slowly north and away
from Caribbean waters today. This pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean
through the middle of the week. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will return to the basin Fri night through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Earl.

Outside of the influence of T.S. Earl, roughly beyond 240 nm of
the center, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
persist across the area west of 45W, with no significant showers
or thunderstorms. Farther east, a broad area of moderate to fresh
easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas following the tropical wave near
45W, and a related trough to its north farther into the
subtropics. This activity is also to the north of the broad low
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands discussed in the Special
Features section. Light to gentle trades and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, Earl will move to 24.1N 65.7W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 25.0N 65.7W Wed morning, then
continue to 26.2N 65.5W Wed afternoon, 27.8N 65.0W Thu morning,
29.6N 64.3W Thu afternoon, and 31.6N 62.7W Fri morning. Earl will
change little in intensity as it continues to move north of the
area through late Fri. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail
to the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell associated
with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri and Sat. Farther
east, the broad low southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will
likely become more organized and move west of 35W between 15N and
20N by late Wed, accompanied by strong winds and rough seas within
90 nm on its north side. Looking ahead, the low and associated
marine conditions are expected to move sharply to the northwest
through the latter part of the week, and cross north of the area
by late Sat before reaching 55W.

$$
Christensen
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