[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 41.6N 42.6W at 06/0300 UTC or
750 nm WNW of the Azores, and moving NE at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
75 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking at 32 to 34 ft near
the center. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm of the center. Danielle is expected to maintain a NE
track through Tue, before turning toward ENE on Wed. Due to
cooler sea surface temperature, Danielle should gradually weaken
over the next several days and might transition into an
extratropical system near Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 22.9N 65.2W at 06/0300 UTC
or 270 nm N of St. Thomas and moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking at 17 to 19 ft near and just
northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted near and north of the center from 22N to 24N
between 64W and 67W. Earl is expected to continue on a northward
movement through Wed morning, then turn toward the NNE Wed night
or Thu. Strengthening is forecast and Earl is likely to become a
hurricane later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A broad and elongated low pressure associated with a tropical
wave has formed near and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Widespread scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 16N
between 23W and 33W, including the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some development of
this system. There is a medium chance for this system to become a
tropical depression over the next 2 to 5 days. Refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. This wave is embedded within a newly
formed broad area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Refer to the third paragraph of the Special Features
section above for more information.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 21N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant
convection near this wave on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at
14N24W to 09N41W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is found up to 130 nm
south and 50 nm north of the trough east of 33W. Numerous heavy
showers are present south of the trough near the Guinea-Sierra
Leone coast. An ITCZ continues from 09N41W across 09N50W to just
east of Trinidad and Tobago at 10N60W. Scattered moderate
convection exist up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Panama-Colombia
border, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent surface winds are producing isolated thunderstorms just
southwest of Tampa, Florida, near the Yucatan Channel and at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Southwesterly upper-level flow is
streaming thick cirrus across the northwestern Gulf. A modest
surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high over the
east-central Gulf to the western Bay of Campeche. This feature is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the
northern Gulf through Thu night, sustaining gentle to locally
moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf. Winds off the
northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will become fresh the
rest of tonight and Tue night due to a local trough that develops
during afternoon and evening. Broad low pressure will move into
the northwestern Gulf Fri and induce southerly return flow across
the eastern half of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Earl
well north of the Virgin Islands are causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the Virgin Islands and Saint Martin.
Convergent trades are generating isolated thunderstorms at the
south-central basin and just south of eastern Cuba. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.
Moderate to fresh NE trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are present near
and just south of the Windward Passage. Otherwise, light to gentle
with locally moderate easterly trades and seas at 1 to 3 ft
prevail for much of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is
being disrupted by T.S. Earl, currently located north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands near 22.9N 65.2W at 11 PM EDT. Earl
will continue to move slowly north and away from Caribbean waters
tonight and Tue while gradually strengthening. This pattern will
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of
the Caribbean through midweek, except for occasionally moderate
to fresh SE winds over the southeast Caribbean and over Atlantic
waters off Trinidad and Guyana. Lines of showers and thunderstorms
related to Earl will continue to impact the Leeward Islands and
adjacent waters into Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will return to the basin Fri night through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Earl.

An upper-level low southwest of Bermuda near 30N69W is triggering
isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 66W and 74W. Enhanced
by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, a surface trough near
27N42W is creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
north of 26N between 37W and 43W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Earl, the weak Atlantic
ridge is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
north of 10N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast/Lesser
Antilles. Farther east, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and 5
to 8 ft seas are evident near the Canary Islands north of 17N
between the African coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
and southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W. Tropical Storm Earl will strengthen to
a hurricane near 23.6N 65.4W Tue morning, move to 24.7N 65.5W Tue
evening, 25.8N 65.6W Wed morning, 27.3N 65.4W Wed evening, 29.0N
64.7W Thu morning, and 30.8N 63.5W Thu evening. Earl will change
little in intensity as it continues to move north of the area
through late Fri. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to
the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell associated
with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri and Sat.

$$

Chan
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