[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052257
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 41.1N 43.2W at 05/2100 UTC
or 770 nm WNW of the Azores moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Seas are
peaking near 34 ft, highest in the N semicircle. Danielle is
forecast to move NE over the next several days, before a likely
turn to the north toward the end of the week. Hurricane Danielle
is expected to gradually weaken this week as it moves over
somewhat cooler waters, but is likely to retain tropical
characteristics through at least mid-week. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 22.2N 65.2W at 05/2100 UTC
or 230 nm N of St. Thomas moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend out 90
nm in the E semicircle and 70 nm in the NW quadrant. Seas of 12 or
higher are within 120 nm NE quadrant, 45 nm SE quadrant, 15 nm SW
quadrant, and 90 nm NW quadrant with seas to 22 ft. The sea
heights are 8 feet or higher from 20N to 25N between 62W and 70W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within
240 nm of the center. Earl is expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated much higher
amounts in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
through tonight. Localized flash, urban, and small stream flooding
is possible in these areas.  Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides
in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially in the
central interior region of Puerto Rico. Earl is expected to move
slowly north for the next 24 to 46 hours, followed by an
acceleration to the northeast. Strengthening is forecast, and
Early is likely to become a hurricane by Wed. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 21N S, moving W
at around 10 kt. A large area disorganized, scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms extend from 08N to 18N between 20W and
36W, including the Cabo Verde Islands, in association with this
wave. An area of low pressure is forecast to form with this
system during the next next day or so, and environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development.
A tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week
as this system moves generally WNW or NW over the eastern and
central Tropical Atlantic.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A weak, 1012 mb, low pressure center
associated with this wave near 21N42W, with a surface trough then
continuing northward from the low to around 31N. Scattered
moderate convection related to this wave extends from 04N to 11N
between 36W and 54W. Convection previously near the low pressure
center and surface trough has diminished this evening.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 13N16W to
13N27W to 10N39W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N44W to 10N57W. Aside
from convection associated with the tropical waves described in
the section above, scattered moderate convection extends from 10N
to 13N between 53W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level features to the N and W are leading to scattered
moderate convection across the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of 92W.
Otherwise, mainly dry conditions prevail as modest high pressure
dominates. Winds are mainly gentle, except for locally moderate NE
winds within 90 nm of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft, highest in the the southern and western basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the
northern Gulf through Thu night to produce gentle to locally
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Winds will
freshen at night off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Tue night due to a local trough that develops each
afternoon and evening. Broad low pressure will move into the NW
Gulf Fri and induce southerly return flow across the E half of the
basin Fri night through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

With Tropical Storm Earl moving farther N from the basin, no
further impacts are anticipated, except for waters near Puerto
Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, where bands of
showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening.

Aside from scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean
being generated by the eastern extension of the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough, convection is confined generally to land areas due
to diurnal sea breeze interactions. The pressure gradient is
quite weak across the basin, thus only gentle trades prevail. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered N of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most
of the Caribbean through the middle of the week, except for
occasionally moderate to fresh SE winds over the southeast
Caribbean and over Atlantic waters off Trinidad and Guyana. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds will return to the basin Fri night
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Earl.

The surface trough along the east coast of Florida has dissipated
this afternoon. Another surface trough is noted from 32N68W to
26N72W. This trough is weakening and associated convection has
diminished this evening. Farther SE, a weak, 1013 mb, low pressure
center near 19N57W has a surface trough that extends SW to near
Barbados. Scattered moderate convection has developed from
Barbados southward to into South America. Elsewhere, a 1024 mb
high pressure centered near 32N24W and a 1018 mb high pressure
focused near 28N53W are dominating the basin.

Away from the influence of Tropical Storm Earl, winds across much
of the basin are gentle. However, N of 18N and E of 41W, moderate
to fresh trades dominate, with areas of locally strong NE winds
offshore the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas through
the basin are 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W. Tropical Storm Earl will be the primary
feature through the week. Outside of its influence, weak high
pressure will generally dominate.

$$
KONARIK
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