[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051821
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sept 05 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Danielle, at 05/1500 UTC, is near 40.2N
43.9W. Danielle is moving NNE or 030 degrees 07 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm of
the center in the N semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere within 480 nm of the center.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Earl, at 05/1500 UTC, is near 21.5N
65.3W. Earl is about 345 km/186 nm to the north of St. Thomas,
and about 1200 km/648 nm to the south of Bermuda. Earl is moving
NNW, or 340 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55
knots with gusts to 65 knots. Tropical storm force winds are
within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 90 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet within 90
nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 45 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights are 8 feet or higher from 20N to 25N
between 62W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
is within 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within
240 nm of the center in the rest of the eastern semicircle. The
hazards that are affecting land areas are:
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8
inches, in the Leeward Islands, in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, and in Puerto Rico through Monday. Limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible.  Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also
possible, especially in the central interior region of Puerto
Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are possible in areas
that will receive heavier rainfall totals. WIND: The wind speeds
are diminishing in the northern Leeward Islands, in the Virgin
Islands, and in Puerto Rico. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 480
nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough 36W eastward. An area of low pressure
is forecast to form with this system during the next next day or
so. The environmental conditions appear to be marginally
favorable for additional development. It is possible that a
tropical depression may form by the latter part of this week.
The weather system will be moving generally west-northwestward
or northwestward, through the eastern and central sections of
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.  A 1012 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 21N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 330 nm to the east
of the tropical wave, and within 540 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 36W and 51W. A surface trough extends
northward, from the 1012 mb low pressure center, along 41W/42W,
to 31N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 24N northward between 34W and 43W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 16N17W, to 13N along the 26W/27W tropical wave, to 11N39W.
The ITCZ is along 11N42W 11N60W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 10N to 12N between 59W and 62W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from the ITCZ
to 13N between 52W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is in the remainder of the areas, that are from the ITCZ
southward from 50W westward, and that are from 10N southward
from 20W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS model for 250 mb, and for 500 mb, shows upper level
cyclonic wind flow in the eastern and southern sections of
Texas, including the Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong are within 180 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from
the Deep South of Texas to the coast of Louisiana, from 24N
northward from 90W westward.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. Expect gentle to
moderate wind speeds, and slight seas, in the area.

Weak high pressure will persist across the northern Gulf through
Fri to produce gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas
across the basin. Winds will freshen at night off the northwest
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night, due to a local
trough that develops each afternoon and evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the hazards to be
affecting the land areas, with respect to Tropical Storm Earl.

An upper level cyclonic circulation is about 320 nm to the WNW
of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that
are from Honduras to 25N between 75W and 91W, in the Caribbean
Sea, in the Atlantic Ocean, in the Straits of Florida, and in
parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind
flow.

Expect generally light to gentle breezes in most areas. The
exception is for moderate SE wind flow in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Expect slight to moderate seas generally.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 75W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 14N southward from 80W westward. Broad surface low
pressure, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective
precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 16N
southward from 70W westward.

A weak Atlantic Ocean ridge north of the area is being disrupted
by T.S. Earl, currently located north of Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands near 21.5N 65.3W. Earl will continue to move
slowly northward, and away from Caribbean Sea waters while
gradually strengthening. This pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean
Sea through the middle of the week, except for occasionally
moderate to fresh SE winds in the southeastern Caribbean Sea,
and in the Atlantic Ocean waters off Trinidad and Guyana. Lines
of showers and thunderstorms related to Earl will continue to
impact the Leeward Islands and adjacent waters through this
evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along the Florida east coast from 25N to
29N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
the NW Bahamas northward from 75W westward.

A surface trough extends southwestward, from a 1016 mb 33N68W
low pressure center, to 26N71W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 26N from 60W westward, away from the
T.S. EARL precipitation. A warm front is in the coastal plains
of southern South Carolina.

Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate sea heights,
are from 45W eastward. Fresh SE winds, and sea heights that
range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are within 90 nm east of the
41W/42W tropical wave. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights
that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, off northwestern Africa.
Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Earl is near 21.5N 65.3W 998 mb at 11 AM EDT,
moving NNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts
to 65 kt. Earl will move northward through tonight and reach
near 23.7N 65.5W Tue morning, near 25.9N 65.6W Wed morning as a
hurricane, then begin to turn more NNE and reach near 28.3N
64.8W Thu morning and near 31.3N 62.8W Fri morning before
exiting the regional waters. Elsewhere weak high pressure will
prevail to the NW and W of Earl.

$$
mt
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