[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 20.2N 65.4W at 05/0300 UTC
or 110 nm NNW of St. Thomas, and moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted near and northeast of the center from 19N to
23N between 62W and 65W. Seas of 16 to 18 ft are found near the
center and 12 ft seas extend up to 120 nm in the NW quadrant and
90 nm in the NE quadrant. Earl is drifting northwestward and
anticipated to gradually turn to the north on Mon, then toward
north-northeastward later this week. Slow strengthening is
forecast over the next several days, and Earl could become a
hurricane later this week. Heavy rain is probable near Puerto
Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands through Mon. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 39.0N 44.7W at 05/0300 UTC or
830 nm W of the Azores, and moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the center from 37N to 41N between 42W and 47W. Seas are peaking
at 30 ft near the center and 12 ft seas extend from the center up
to 150 nm in a north semi circle, and 180 nm in a south semi
circle. Danielle is expected to continue northeast course with a
slightly increase in forward speed northeastward motion through
Tue, then turning toward the east-northeast Tue night. Danielle is
expected to maintain its current intensity through Monday night,
then a gradual weakening trend afterward. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 21N southward
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 20W
and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39N from 25N southward
through a 1012 mb low near 20N39W, and moving west around 10 kt.
Aided by divergent winds aloft, isolated thunderstorms are seen
near the northern tip of the wave from 24N to 26N between 33W and
40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
just south of Dakar, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at
13N24W to 09N41W. Other than the convection near the tropical
wave, numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are
occurring near the Mauritania-Senegal border and adjacent waters.
Scattered moderate convection is present up to 180 nm south and 70
nm north of the trough. An ITCZ continues from 09N41W across
10N50W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to
120 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the west coast of central and southern Florida.
An upper-level trough is generating similar conditions at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Convergent easterly winds are producing
isolated thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf. A modest 1015
mn high southwest of New Orleans is promoting light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across the northern Gulf. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found over the
west-central, southwestern and southeastern Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. Gentle easterly winds and seas near 3 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will reside across the
northern Gulf through Fri. Expect gentle to locally moderate winds
and slight seas across the basin through Fri. Winds will freshen
at night off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through
Tue night due to a local trough that develops each afternoon and
evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on heavy rain near Puerto
Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands due to Tropical Storm Earl.

An upper-level low is triggering isolated thunderstorms over the
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Convergent
trades are creating similar weather over the waters near Panama
and northern Colombia. Moderate NW to S winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft exist near Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present near and south
of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 1 to
3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge north of the area is being disrupted
by T.S. Earl, currently over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands near 20.2N65.4W. Earl will continue to move
slowly north and away from Caribbean waters. This pattern will
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of
the Caribbean through the middle of the week, except for
occasionally moderate to fresh SE winds over the southeast
Caribbean and over Atlantic waters off Trinidad and Guyana.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section for information on
Tropical Storm Earl.

An upper-level trough near 31N40W is producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms north of 27N between 34W and 41W. A surface
trough extending southwestward from a 1015 mb low west of Bermuda
is generating isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 65W and
the Georgia-Florida coast, including the northwestern Bahamas.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A modest surface ridge stretching west-southwestward from a 1024
mb Azores High is sustaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas north of 25N between 42W and Georgia-Florida coast. To the
south outside the influence of T.S. Earl, light to gentle with
locally moderate NE to SE trades and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present
from 10N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near
the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 4 to
6 ft are evident north of 16N between the African coast and
35W/42W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and 4 to 6
ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl is north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands near 20.2N 65.4W 998 mb at 11 PM EDT,
moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts
to 55 kt. Earl will move to 21.3N 65.6W Mon morning, 22.5N 65.7W
Mon evening, 23.6N 65.8W Tue morning, then strengthen to a
hurricane near 24.5N 65.9W Tue evening. Earl will continue to move
north to 25.4N 65.8W Wed morning, and 26.4N 65.5W Wed evening.
Earl will change little in intensity but expand in size as it
continues to move northward through Thu to the southeast of
Bermuda. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W
of Earl.

$$

Chan
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