[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico near 20.9N 65.3W at 05/0900 UTC or 150 nm N of St.
Thomas moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
The low level center of Earl is partially exposed to the west the
main convection, due to southwest shear. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is active from 19N to 23N between 62W
and 65W. Seas are 12 to 18 ft from 20N to 24N between 63W and 66W.
Earl will move northward through mid week, and is expected to
intensify into a hurricane on Wed. Heavy rain is possible in
Puerto Rico and the Virgin and Leeward Islands today. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 39.6N 44.4W at 05/0900 UTC
or 820 nm WNW of the Azores moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm of the center. Seas are peaking at 33 ft near
the center and 12 ft seas extend from the center up to 180 nm in
the west semicircle, and 150 nm in the east semicircle. Danielle
should continue to accelerate and move N-NE to NE through early
Tue, then turn E-NE. Little change in strength is forecast through
today. Danielle will slowly weaken through thereafter as it moves
over cooler water. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 04N to 20N,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 17N between 17W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40N from 15N to 25N
through a 1012 mb low near 20N40W, and moving west around 10 kt.
Aided by divergent winds aloft, isolated thunderstorms are seen
near the northern tip of the wave from 26N to 30N between 35W and
40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
just south of Dakar, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at
13N25W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to near Trinidad.
Scattered moderate from 09N to 11N between 52W and 55W. The
Caribbean monsoon trough reaches from near Cartagena, Colombia to
near Limon, Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the Florida
current near 23N85W in the southeast Gulf. Showers are also active
off the coast of Veracruz. Otherwise, weak ridging across the
northern Gulf is maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
across the basin.

For the forecast, little change is expected. The weak high
pressure will persist across the northern Gulf through Fri. Expect
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin
through Fri. Winds will freshen at night off the northwest coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night due to a local trough
that develops each afternoon and evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on possible heavy rain
over Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands due to Tropical
Storm Earl.

An upper low is centered over the northwest Caribbean, supporting
a few showers and thunderstorms north of 18N to the coast of Cuba.
Weak trade wind convergence north of the monsoon trough between
Colombia and Nicaragua. Farther east, a few showers are also
active from Trinidad to the mouth of the Orinoco River. The
presence of Earl north of Puerto Rico has disrupted the normal
ridging pattern, resulting in generally light to gentle breezes
over most of the basin, except for moderate SE flow across the
eastern Caribbean, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, little change is expected through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section for information on
Tropical Storm Earl.

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted along a surface trough
reaching from 31N68W to 28N75W. Outside of the winds, seas, and
thunderstorms around T.S. Earl, gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas persist across the region east of 45W.
Farther east, fresh SE winds are likely within 90 nm east of the
tropical wave along 40N, accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to
strong NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are observed off northwest
Africa. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl will move to
21.7N 65.5W this afternoon, 22.9N 65.7W Tue morning, 24.0N 65.8W
Tue afternoon, and 25.1N 65.9W Wed morning. Earl will strengthen
to a hurricane near 26.2N 65.7W Wed afternoon then move to 27.3N
65.4W Thu morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it
continues to move toward the southeast and east of Bermuda through
Fri. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of
Earl.

$$
Christensen
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