[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 20.0N 65.2W at 04/2100 UTC
or 100 nm N of St. Thomas, and is moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Peak seas
are currently 13 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90 nm in the NE
quadrant and 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Earl has resumed a slow
northwestward motion and a gradual turn to the north- northwest is
anticipated to begin tomorrow followed by a north- northeastward
turn later this week. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next
several days, and Earl could become a hurricane later this week.
Seas are expected to peak near 20 ft over the next few days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 38.5N 45.1W at 04/2100 UTC
or 850 nm W of the Azores, and is moving N at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 36N to 41N between 41W and 47W. Seas are currently
peaking near 30 ft. Danielle is expected to have a slightly faster
northeastward motion beginning tonight and continue during the
next couple of days. Some gradual strengthening is forecast
through Monday. Seas are expected to build to near 36 ft over the
next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 23W from
21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the trough axis and along the monsoon trough from 09N
to 16N between 19W and 27W.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 38N from
24N southward, moving W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is located
along the wave near 22N. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north
of the low and trough from 24N to 27N between 33W and 39W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal/Mauritania near 16N16W to 14N29W to 10N36W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N41W to 09N49W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 28W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure continues to extend across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf from
25N86W to 28N85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the western Gulf, W of 89W. Thunderstorms are also firing along
the western Florida coast. Light to gentle winds are noted across
the Gulf of Mexico with moderate winds off the northwest Yucatan
coast. Buoys indicate seas are up to 4 ft in the NW Gulf with 1-3
ft across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will reside across the
northern Gulf through Thu. Expect gentle to locally moderate winds
and slight seas across the basin Sun through Thu. Winds will
freshen at night over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue night
due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the
Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low continues to linger across the NW Caribbean, W
of the Cayman Islands and S of Cuba near 20N84W. This is
influencing isolated thunderstorms across this area of the basin.
Isolated thunderstorms are also noted along Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands
eastward to the northern Lesser Antilles due to Tropical Storm
Earl. Isolated thunderstorms are also occurring in the eastern
Caribbean. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean
along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 13N between 72W and
83W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the area with 3-5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail W of 72W
through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds will develop
over the eastern half of the Caribbean this evening through Tue.
Tropical Storm Earl is near 20N 65.2W 998 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW
at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will
move slowly NNW overnight and then N on Mon, reaching near 22.3N
65.4W Mon afternoon, near 24.6N 65.6W Tue afternoon as a
hurricane, then continue moving NNE at around 5 kt through Sat
while expanding in size as well as gradually strengthening. Lines
of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with Earl will
impact the NE Caribbean through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section for information on
Tropical Storm Earl.

Scattered thunderstorms are occurring across the SW N Atlantic,
off the Florida coast and near the Bahamas from 20N to 31N and W
of 72W. In this area, winds are gentle to locally moderate with
seas 3-4 ft.

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic with light to
gentle winds and seas ranging 4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a
1022 mb high pressure is noted NW of the Canary Islands near
31N25W. This is causing fresh to strong winds off the Morocco and
Western Sahara coast with moderate to fresh winds stretching as
far south as 17N and as far west as 46W. Seas range 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl is near 20N 65.2W
998 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45
kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move slowly NNW overnight and then N on
Mon and gradually intensify, reaching near 22.3N 65.4W Mon
afternoon, near 24.6N 65.6W Tue afternoon as a hurricane, reach
near 26.4N 65.1W Wed afternoon, near 28.2N 64W Thu afternoon, then
near 31.4N 61.5W Fri afternoon before exiting the region to the
north. Earl will expand in size as well as continue to strengthen
Wed through Fri. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail to the
NW and W of Earl.

$$
AReinhart
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