[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sept 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Earl, at 04/1500 UTC, is near 19.5N
64.4W, or about 115 km/61 nm to the NE of the Northern Leeward
Islands. Earl is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 03 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Tropical storm force winds are within 90 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant, within 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and
within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights
are reaching 12 feet within 120 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, and within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 12 feet from 18N to 26N
between 57W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 180 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle, and
within 60 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Hurricane Danielle, at 04/1500 UTC, is near 38.1N
45.3W. Danielle is moving W or 270 degrees 01 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of
the center in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to
the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 17N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 16N from 26W
eastward. It is possible that an area of low pressure may form
later this week. Subsequent gradual development is possible as
this system moves generally west-northwestward, in the
east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 26N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.  A 1010 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 22N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 550 nm to the NE of the 1010 mb low
pressure center, and within 400 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, from the monsoon trough to 20N. Scattered moderate to
strong is from 29N northward between 35W and 39W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Mauritania, to 14N28W, to 11N36W. The ITCZ is along
10N38W 09N50W 09N57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 200 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and 62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS model for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows a trough along
the Texas coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 150 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from
the Deep South of Texas to the coast of Mississippi. A separate
surface trough, and isolated moderate to locally strong
convective precipitation, are in the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A weak surface pressure gradient supports moderate E to SE winds
in the SW corner of the area, and light to gentle variable winds
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SW
half of the area, and they range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the NE
half of the area.

Weak high pressure will reside across the northern Gulf through
Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across southern
portions today, then diminish to gentle to locally moderate
winds and slight seas thereafter. Winds will freshen at night
over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue night due to the
diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan
peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is about 225 nm to the W of
Jamaica, near 19N82W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
areas that are from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N in the
Atlantic Ocean, in the Straits of Florida, and in the SE Gulf of
Mexico, between Hispaniola and 90W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The wind speeds are mainly gentle to moderate. Sea heights to 4
feet cover the area.

The monsoon trough is along 11N75W near Colombia, to 08N81W in
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 14N southward from 74W westward.

Gentle to moderate winds in the western half of the Caribbean
will diminish to light to gentle early this evening and then
prevail through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
develop in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea this evening,
and persist through the end of the forecast period. Tropical
Storm Earl is near 19.5N 64.4W 999 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at
3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move
NNW to N and slowly intensify through Mon, reaching near 21.5N
65.2W Mon morning, near 23.5N 65.5W Tue morning as a hurricane,
then continue moving NNE at around 5 kt through Sat while
expanding in size as well as strengthening. Lines of heavy
showers and thunderstorms associated with Earl will impact the
NE Caribbean Sea through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along the Florida east coast from 25N to
29N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
the NW Bahamas northward from 75W westward.

A surface trough is along 67W/68W, that extends southwestward,
from a 1015 mb 32N67W low pressure center, to 26N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N between 50W and 75W.

The subtropical Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a broad
ridge, that is supporting gentle to moderate winds, and slight
to moderate seas. The exception is in the the far NE Atlantic
Ocean, with
fresh NE to E winds, and sea heights that are reaching 6 feet.

Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are from 25N southward from
60W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N northward
from 20W eastward. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6
feet in the remainder of the area from 70W eastward. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward from 70W
westward.

Tropical Storm Earl is near 19.5N 64.4W 999 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Earl will move NNW to N and gradually intensify through Mon,
reaching near 21.5N 65.2W Mon morning, near 23.5N 65.5W Tue
morning as a hurricane, reach near 25.7N 65W Wed morning, near
27.2N 64W Thu morning, then near 29.6N 61.8W Fri morning before
exiting the region to the north Sat. Earl will expand in size as
well as continue to strengthen Wed through Fri. Elsewhere weak
high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net