[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 19.3N 63.2W at 03/2100 UTC
or 70 nm N of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Seas range 8 to 13
ft from 19N to 23N between 60W and 65W. A slower west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass north
of the northern Leeward Islands through this evening, and north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. Some slow
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Seas are
expected to increase to near 15 ft through Sun night. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.0N 44.8W at 03/2100
UTC or 840 nm W of the Azores moving W at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 150 nm in the southern semicircle. Seas 12 ft or
greater are within 150 nm of center except 120 nm within the SE
quadrant. Peak seas are 29 ft. Danielle is to have a slow
westward motion through early Sunday. A turn to the north is
forecast to begin Sunday night. Gradual strengthening is expected
during the next couple of days, and Danielle is forecast to
become a hurricane again. Seas are expected to build to 32 ft
over the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 18W, from 21N
southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 17W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 33W from 23N
southward, moving westward around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along
the wave near 20.8N. A surface trough extends northwest of the low
to near 27N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
13N between 32W and 35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near
11N15W to 12N27W to a 1010 mb low near 20.8N33W to 13N35W to
09N38W. The ITCZ continues from 09N38W to 09N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 20W and 32W
and from 05N to 11N between 36W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is moving across the northern and western Gulf
from 19N to 30N and W of 87W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
firing off along the west coast of Florida. Fresh to locally
strong winds are likely off northwest Yucatan, with moderate to
locally fresh winds noted across the souther Gulf. Light to gentle
winds persist across the northern Gulf. Buoys and an earlier
altimeter pass show 4-6 ft seas in the southwest Gulf with 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will reside across the
northern Gulf through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
across southern portions through early Sun, then diminish to
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas thereafter. Winds
will freshen at night over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue
night due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the
Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from
15N to 23N between 77W and 89W due to the influence of an upper
level low centered near 20N82W, south of Cuba near the Cayman
Islands. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is
noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N between
73W and 83W. The central and eastern Caribbean have some showers
across the area but no deep convection is noted at this time.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the central and
western basin with seas 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds in the
eastern Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the
central and NW basin through tonight. Afterward, gentle to
moderate winds will dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near
19.3N 63.2W 999 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move WNW at less than
10 kt tonight then turn more NW Sun, and remain just north of the
NE Caribbean Islands, reaching near 20.5N 65.4W Sun afternoon.
Earl will then begin to move slowly N to NE and strengthen,
reaching near 25.6N 65.6W Wed afternoon as a hurricane and
continue moving NNE. Active weather associated with Earl is
expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please the Special Features section for more information on TS
Earl.

Off the Florida coast, scattered thunderstorms are noted W of 79W.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas 3-5 ft. Farther
east, a trough extends from a 1017 mb low near 33N65W to 25N66W.
No significant precipitation is noted at this time.

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic with quiescent
conditions. Light to gentle winds are noted with 4-6 ft seas. In
the eastern Atlantic, high pressure extends across this area
anchored by a 1021 mb high S of the Azores near 33N28W. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted off the coast of Morocco and
western Sahara with seas 4-6 ft. Near the 1010 mb low mentioned
above along the 33W tropical wave, moderate to fresh winds are
noted northeast of the low. Seas are near 8 ft by the low.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 19.3N
63.2W 999 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move WNW at less than 10 kt
tonight then turn more NW Sun, and remain just north of the NE
Caribbean Islands, reaching near 20.5N 65.4W Sun afternoon, then
near 22.2N 66.4W Mon afternoon, near 24.1N 66.6W Tue afternoon,
then near 25.6N 65.6W Wed afternoon as a hurricane, and exit the
regional waters to the north as a hurricane early Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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