[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040420
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 19.5N 64.2W at 04/0300 UTC
or 80 nm NE of St. Thomas, USVI, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
remains sheared over the eastern semicircle, within 200 nm of the
center. Seas range 8 to 17 ft from 19N to 23N between 61W and
67W. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the
northwest and then north is forecast to begin on Sunday and
continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Earl is expected to pass to the north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight and on Sunday. Gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 38.1N 45.1W at 04/0300 UTC or
855 nm W of the Azores, moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm of the center. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 150
nm of center, except 120 nm within the SE quadrant. Peak seas are
27 ft. Danielle is drifting westward and this general motion is
expected through early Sunday. A turn to the north-northeast is
forecast to begin late Sunday night, or early Monday. Additional
gradual strengthening is expected through Monday. Seas are
expected to build to 33 ft over the next few days. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, south of
21N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 10N to 18N and between the coast of Africa and 24W.

Another eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W, south
of 24N, moving westward at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is along
the wave near 20.7N. A surface trough extends northwest of the
low to near 27N41W. The wave and low pressure are embedded in a
dry Saharan airmass that is limiting the convection to a few
showers to the north of the low. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicate that moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in
the northern quadrant. Seas are 4-7 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to
14N27W to 09N40W. The ITCZ then extends from 09N40W to 11N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N and
between 25W and 35W. Similar convection is occurring from 05N to
11N and between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off SW
Florida, southern Texas and Bay of Campeche as evening storm
activity over the nearby landmasses spill into these waters. The
rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions under a
weak high pressure regime. Fresh to strong easterly winds are
occurring off NW Yucatan, while moderate to locally fresh breezes
are noted S of 25N. Seas are 3-6 ft. N of 25N, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will reside across the northern
Gulf through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across
southern portions through early Sun, then diminish to gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas thereafter. Winds will
freshen at night over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue night
due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the
Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident on
satellite imagery within 100 nm of the coasts of Panama, Colombia
and Venezuela, also affecting the ABC islands. Most of the storm
activity related to Earl is outside of the Caribbean Sea, however,
a few showers are seen in the extreme NE portion of the basin.
Lastly, an upper level low between western Cuba and Cayman Islands
is generating a few showers in the NW Caribbean, mainly in the lee
of Cuba. The rest of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are noted
in the south-central Caribbean, offshore southern Dominican
Republic, Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. The seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of the
U.S. will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the
central and NW basin through tonight. Afterward, gentle to
moderate winds will dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl
near 19.5N 64.2W 999 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move to 20.0N 65.3W
Sun morning, 20.9N 66.1W Sun evening, 21.7N 66.6W Mon morning,
22.7N 66.9W Mon evening, 23.5N 67.0W Tue morning, and 24.3N 66.9W
Tue evening. Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.6N
65.8W late Wed. Active weather associated with Earl is expected
to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Earl, located NE of the Virgin Islands.

A broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical
Atlantic. A couple of showers dot the waters off NE Florida and
near a surface trough that extends from 31N67W to 27N68W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic enjoys tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trades are evident
on satellite-derived wind data S of 25N and W of 70W. Seas in
these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are
noted off Western Sahara and Morocco, especially N of 20N and E of
22W, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 19.5N 64.2W 999 mb
at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt. Earl will move to 20.0N 65.3W Sun morning, 20.9N
66.1W Sun evening, 21.7N 66.6W Mon morning, 22.7N 66.9W Mon
evening, 23.5N 67.0W Tue morning, and 24.3N 66.9W Tue evening.
Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.6N 65.8W late Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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