[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sept 03 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Earl, at 03/1500 UTC, is near 19.0N
62.4W, or about 115 km/61 nm to the NE of the Northern Leeward
Islands. Earl is moving WNW, or 285 degrees 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Tropical storm force winds are within 150 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant,
and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea
heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 18N to 22N between 59W
and 62W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 17N to
26N between 53W and 65W. Precipitation: numerous strong is
within 75 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, and within 760 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Danielle, at 03/1500 UTC, is near
38.1N 44.0W. Danielle is moving WNW or 300 degrees 02 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of
the center in the NW semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to
the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 17N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 08N to 17N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 24N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.  A 1010 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 20.5N. A surface trough
extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center, northwestward, to
27N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N northward between 20W and 42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N20W, to the 1010 mb low pressure
center that is along the 31W/32W tropical wave, to 12N35W, and
09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 09N50W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder
of the area from 12N southward from 33W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center
is near 20N93W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, and sea
heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds, and
sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the
remainder of the area.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. A broad and weak surface trough angles northeastward,
from NE Mexico, toward the north central Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 90 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from the Florida Big Bend
to the Deep South of Texas.

Gentle to moderate SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible for the
wind speeds to be faster, and the sea heights to be higher, near
the convective precipitation.

Weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the
Gulf waters through early next week, maintaining gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate
winds will pulse to fresh nightly in parts of the SW Gulf
through Sat night, due to the diurnal trough developing each
afternoon in the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is about 200 nm to the WNW
of Jamaica, near 20N81W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the areas that are from 12N in the Caribbean Sea to 26N in the
Atlantic Ocean, in Florida, and in the SE Gulf of Mexico,
between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are in the
central and in the NW Caribbean Sea, including in the Windward
Passage. The comparatively fastest winds are in the Gulf of
Honduras, with the sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet.
Expect light to gentle trade winds, and the sea heights ranging
from 1 foot to 3 feet, in the remainder of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W at the coast of
Colombia beyond Costa, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough between 78W and Costa Rica.

High pressure across the eastern seaboard of the U.S. will
support moderate to fresh trades across the central and NW basin
through today. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will dominate
through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near 19.0N 62.4W 1003 mb at 11
AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Earl will move WNW around 10 kt today then turn more NW
tonight and Sun, and remain just north of the NE Caribbean
Islands, reaching near 22.7N 66.6W Sun evening. Earl will then
begin to move slowly N to NE and strengthen, reaching near 25.3N
65.9W Wed morning. Active weather associated with Earl is
expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 79W/80W from 24N northward, just to
the east of Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 28N northward from 76W westward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 26N
northward from 70W westward.

A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 24N northward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N
between 53W and 70W.

Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are from 25N southward from
60W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N northward
from 20W eastward. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6
feet in the remainder of the area from 70W eastward. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward from 70W
westward.

Tropical Storm Earl near 19.0N 62.4W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl
will move WNW around 10 kt through tonight and remain just north
of the Caribbean Islands, changing little in strength, and reach
near 20.3N 65W Sun morning, then near 21.8N 66.3W Mon morning,
near 24N 66.6W Tue morning, then 25.3N 65.9W Wed morning and
exit the regional waters as a hurricane early Sat.

$$
mt/ar
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