[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.0N 43.8W at 03/0900
UTC or 800 nm W of the Azores moving W at 1 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 32N to 40N between 37W and 47W. A westward drift
is expected today and Sunday, followed by a northward drift on
Monday. Little change in strength is expected today. Some slight
strengthening is expected tonight through Monday, and Danielle
could regain hurricane strength on Sunday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.7N 61.4W at 03/0900 UTC
or 100 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Strong
westerly shear is displacing the storm activity to the east of the
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 16N
to 20N between 57W and 61W. On the forecast track, the center of
Earl is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands today, and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Sunday. Slow strengthening is possible during the
next few of days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 30W, with a low pressure of
1010 mb near 20N and it is moving W at 15 kt. The disturbance is
moving over cooler temperatures and an stable environment,
resulting in little convection in the NE semicircle.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 16N23W to 20N29W to
08N41W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N41W to 10N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 16W and 22W, and
from 06N to 15N between 50W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions, except for the
continuation of scattered showers and tstsm in the western Bay of
Campeche due to a surface trough that is approaching the region of
Veracruz this morning. A weak high pressure of 1018 mb is located
over the NE Gulf and the moderate pressure gradient due to lower
pressures over Mexico sustain moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds over the SW Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere in the basin, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and
seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly over portions of the SW
Gulf through Sat night due to the diurnal trough developing each
afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands.

An upper level low centered just south of Cuba is producing a few
showers in the lee of the island and into the Windward Passage. Farther
south, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica to NW
Colombia and it is helping to generate a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the offshore waters of SE Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama. Moisture associated with Earl is inducing a few
showers over the NE Caribbean Sea, affecting some of the islands
and offshore waters of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trades are found in the central
and NW Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. The
strongest winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and
seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central
and NW basin through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will
dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near 18.7N 61.4W 1005
mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 19.2N 62.8W this afternoon, 19.9N
64.5W Sun morning, 20.6N 65.6W Sun afternoon, 21.2N 66.4W Mon
morning, 21.8N 67.0W Mon afternoon, and 22.6N 67.2W Tue morning.
Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.0N 67.0W
early Wed. Active weather associated with Earl is expected to
impact the NE Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge with a couple
centers of high pressure. A weak surface trough enters the
western tropical Atlantic near 31N63W and extends southwestward
to 28N74W, producing a few shallow showers near the trough axis.
The rest of the basin, aside from the storm activity in the deep
tropics, enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes prevail S of 25N and W of 60W, along with
seas of 4-7 ft. N of 25N and W of 60W, light to moderate
anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. Fresh to
strong NE winds are also present N of 22N and E of 20W, along with
seas of 3-6 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 18.7N
61.4W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 19.2N 62.8W this
afternoon, 19.9N 64.5W Sun morning, 20.6N 65.6W Sun afternoon,
21.2N 66.4W Mon morning, 21.8N 67.0W Mon afternoon, and 22.6N
67.2W Tue morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it
moves near 24.0N 67.0W early Wed.

$$
Ramos
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