[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 37.9N 43.5W at 03/0300 UTC or
780 nm W of the Azores. The hurricane is stationary. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring within 200 nm of the center, especially in
the eastern semicircle. The strongest convection is found within
45 nm of the center. Danielle is forecast to drift generally
westward through early Sunday, then northward by Monday. Some
slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.4N 60.3W at 03/0300 UTC
or 160 nm E of the Leeward Islands. The tropical storm is moving
to the WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Strong westerly shear is displacing the storm activity to the east
of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present
within 270 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. A decrease
in forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward
the northwest with an additional decrease in forward speed is
expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday night and Sunday. Some slight strengthening is
possible during the next few days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, with
a low pressure of 1010 mb near 20N. It is moving W at 15 kt. The
disturbance is moving over cooler temperatures and an stable
environment, resulting in little to no convection near the low
pressure or along the wave. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in
the northern quadrant, primarily from 20N to 27N and between 25W
and 36W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to
16N22W in the Cabo Verde Islands to a 1010 mb low pres near 20N30W
to 08N41W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N41W to 08N50W to 15N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm of the
ITCZ between 41W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers dot the northern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of
Campeche as evening storms over the nearby landmasses expand into the
nearshore and offshore waters. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure of 1017 mb is
located over the NE Gulf and the moderate pressure gradient due to
lower pressures over Mexico sustain fresh to locally fresh
easterly winds over the SW Gulf, primarily S of 25N and W of 88W,
as shown by recent satellite-derived wind data. Seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week
maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly over
portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to the diurnal
trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands.

An upper level low centered just south of Cuba is producing a few
showers in the lee of the island and into the Windward Passage. Farther
south, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica to NW
Colombia and it is helping to generate a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the offshore waters of SE Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama. Moisture associated with Earl is inducing a few
showers over the NE Caribbean Sea, affecting some of the islands
and offshore waters of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trades are found in the central
and NW Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depict the strongest winds occurring
in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of the
U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central
and NW basin through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds
will dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near 18.4N 60.3W
1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 18.9N 62.0W Sat morning,
19.5N 63.8W Sat evening, 20.2N 65.3W Sun morning, 20.9N 66.4W Sun
evening, 21.5N 67.2W Mon morning, and 22.2N 67.7W Mon evening.
Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.3N
67.8W late Tue. Active weather associated with Earl is expected
to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge with a couple
centers of high pressure of 1022 mb near 35N53W and 1021 mb near
33N18W. A weak surface trough enters the western tropical
Atlantic near 31N65W and extends southwestward to 29N75W,
producing a few shallow showers near the trough axis. The rest of
the basin, aside from the storm activity in the deep tropics,
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes prevail S of 25N and W of 60W, along with seas of
4-7 ft. N of 25N and W of 60W, light to moderate anticyclonic
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. Fresh to strong NE winds
are also present N of 22N and E of 20W, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-5 ft are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 18.4N 60.3W
1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 18.9N 62.0W Sat morning,
19.5N 63.8W Sat evening, 20.2N 65.3W Sun morning, 20.9N 66.4W Sun
evening, 21.5N 67.2W Mon morning, and 22.2N 67.7W Mon evening.
Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.3N 67.8W
late Tue.

$$
DELGADO
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