[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 02 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.1N 44.5W at 01/2100
UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving E at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure has decreased to 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite
imagery showers increasing numerous moderate convection east of
the center of Danielle from 36N to 39N between 41W-45W. Danielle
is forecast to undergo strengthening during the next few days,
and it is expected to become a hurricane within a day. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

East of the Leeward Islands: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is
that is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 16N54W depict a broad
area of low pressure. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 15N to 18N between 53W-55W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 17N59W. ASCAT
data from this afternoon showed fresh to strong winds in the
northern semi- circle of the low. While environmental conditions
remain only marginally conductive, any additional development of
the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of
a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west- northwestward toward the adjacent waters of the northern
Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium probability of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance
over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from
06N to 21N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Low pressure of 1005 mb
is along the wave near 18N. Convection with this system has also
diminished during the day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm of the low. This system has a low probability
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a low chance
over the next 5 days.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 88W
south of 21N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. The majority
of associated convection has moved inland the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize. Lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 17N to 19N west of 86W.

The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave extends
northward into the SW Gulf of Mexico along 96 and south of 21N,
moving westward near 10 kt. While most of the associated
convection is occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the
eastern Pacific, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N17W to low pressure of 1005 mb near 18N24W and continues
southwestward to 11N33W, and northwestward from there to 13N46W,
to 14N48W to low pressure of 1008 mb near 16N54W and to 15N57W.
Outside of tropical wave activity, numerous moderate convection
is within 120 nm S of the trough between 48W-52W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 32W-44W, and from
07N to 09N between 45W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the western Florida panhandle to
28N89W and to 26N91W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are near the trough axis, and also north of about 22N and E of
about 93W. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Gulf of
Mexico. Winds are gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over
portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Sat nights due to a diurnal trough
developing over the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early
next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough axis extends
across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate convection
from 09N to 12N between 75W-80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are observed in the central and NW Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in these areas. Gentle winds
prevail elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean
through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach
fresh speeds through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas
will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above
for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic
with potential for tropical cyclone development.

The western Atlantic is dominated by weak 1017 mb high pressure
centered near 28N71W. Anticyclonic winds are light to gentle
around this feature. Seas are 3-5 ft across the region. A
stationary frontal boundary is just north of the area roughly
along 32W and west of about 70W. A weak 1015 mb low is along this
boundary near 76W. Scattered to isolated showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and near the boundary. A surface trough
is analyzed from 31N61W to 28N60W and to near 25N62W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms area along and within 60 nm east of the
trough from 26N to 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere near the trough. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter
pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with
4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently
diminished n coverage. Although environmental conditions remain
only marginally conducive, any additional development of the
system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a
tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern
Leeward Islands, reaching the far SE forecast waters W of 55W
tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
much of the area through early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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