[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.0N 44.0W at 02/0300
UTC or 805 nm W of the Azores moving E at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
observed in all quadrants, extending to 175 nm from the center in
the eastern semicircle. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane
on Friday. The storm is forecast to meander during the next
couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

East of the Leeward Islands: A broad area of low pressure of 1008
mb is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 17N55W. Satellite imagery
indicate that scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 11N to 22N and between 50W and 60W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to locally strong winds
in the northern semicircle of the low. Although environmental
conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional
development of the system over the next few days would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is expected
to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of
the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium
probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a
high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of
21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A low pressure of 1006 mb is along the
wave near 19N. The disturbanCe is moving over cooler waters,
resulting in only a few showers near the low pressure and wave.
This system has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours and a low chance over the next 5 days.

A tropical wave extends across Yucatan and into the E Pacific, it has
its axis along 89W, south of 21N. It is moving W at 10 kt. The
wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across SE
Mexico and W Central America, with some showers dotting the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 95W, but it is mostly of
interest to the Eastern Pacific. Please read their Tropical
Weather Discussion for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N17W to a 1006 mb low pres near 18.5N26W to
11N37W to a 1008 mb low pres near 17N55W to 08N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 27W
and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough extends from the western Florida panhandle to
25N91W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the
NE Gulf. Similar convection is observed in the nearshore waters
of the NW Gulf due to storm activity over SE Texas and SW
Louisiana and also in the E Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally
fresh SE-E winds are prevalent S of 27N and W of 86W, along with
seas of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2
ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse nightly over
portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to a diurnal
trough developing over the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, high
pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters
through early next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the SW Caribbean Sea
due to abundant tropical moisture and the E Pacific monsoon trough
that is draped from Costa Rica to NW Colombia. Similar convection
is noted off southern Hispaniola as the afternoon and evening
storms spill into the regional waters. The rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds are affecting the Gulf of Honduras waters,
along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean
through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh
to locally strong speeds into Fri night. Elsewhere, light winds
and slight seas will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above
for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic
with potential for tropical cyclone development.

A weak high pressure over the western tropical Atlantic maintains
generally tranquil conditions across the area. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds are noted S of 23N and W of
60W, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail N of 23N. A surface trough
stretches from 31N59W to 25N62W and a few shallow showers are
present near the trough axis.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring S of the
monsoon trough and E of 30W to the African coast. Seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Farther north, moderate to fresh NE winds are
affecting the waters offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the
water passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas are 2-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands have recently decreased in coverage.
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally
conducive, any additional development of the system over the next
few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands, reaching the
far SE forecast waters W of 55W tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early
next week.

$$
DELGADO
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