[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.1N
44.7W at 01/1500 UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving E at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate
convection is observed from 36N to 39N, between 43W and 46W. The
system is forecast to meander for the next few days while
intensifying to hurricane strength by Fri night. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

East of the Leeward Islands: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is
located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles east
of the Lesser Antilles, near 16N53W. The wave is moving W at
around 6 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N
to 21N, between 49W to 58W. A recent scatterometer pass found
fresh to strong winds in the northern semi-circle of the low.
While environmental conditions remain only marginally conductive,
any additional development of the system over the next few days
would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature
has a medium probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48
hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane
Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 06N to
21N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 12N to 21N, between 23W and 30W. A 1005 mb low
pressure is analyzed along the wave near 18N24W. This feature has
been decreased to a low probability of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours and a low chance over the next 5 days.

A tropical wave over the extreme western portion of the Caribbean
sea extends along 87W, from 06N to 21N, moving W at 5 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 22N, between
75W and 88W.

A tropical wave over the SW Gulf of Mexico extends along 95W,
south of 21N, moving W at 5 kt. While most of the associated
convection is occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the
eastern Pacific, scattered moderate convection is observed in the
SW Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 21N, between 95W and 96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to 10N35W to 16N52W to 08N57W. Outside of tropical wave
activity, scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to
11N, between 27W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle to the
central Gulf. Moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted near
the trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Gulf of
Mexico. Winds are gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over
portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Sat nights due to a diurnal trough
developing over the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early
next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW
Caribbean, generating scattered moderate convection from 09N to
12N, between 75W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
observed in the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in these areas. Gentle winds prevail
elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean
through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach
fresh speeds through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas
will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above
for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic
with the potential for tropical cyclone development.

The western Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure
centered near 28N70W. Anticyclonic winds are light to gentle
around this feature. Seas are 3-5 ft across the region. In the
eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is supporting
moderate to fresh NE winds with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have changed little this
morning. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally
conducive, any additional development of the system over the next
few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward,
toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands,
reaching the far SE forecast waters W of 55W this evening.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of
the area through early next week.

$$
Flynn
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