[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently developed Tropical Depression Five is centered near
38.1N 45.0W at 01/0900 UTC or 850 nm W of the Azores moving ENE at
2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm n quadrant and
120 nm se semicircle of the system center. The system is forecast
to meander for the next few days while intensifying. The system
is expected to reach tropical storm intensity today, and hurricane
intensity Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Central Tropical Atlantic: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located
several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near
16N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 12N to 20N between 48W and 55W. Similar convection
is also found from 06N to 10N and between 50W and 55W. Fresh to
strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrants
of the low. Seas are peaking near 9 ft. Although environmental
conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional
development of the system over the next few days would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast
to move slowly west- northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of
the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance
over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad 1006 mb area of low pressure
located over and to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands near
17N22.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N
between 22W and 27W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5-8
ft are in the vicinity of the low. While surface observations indicate
pressures are low in this area, the associated shower activity is
currently poorly organized. There is still a potential for the
system to become a short-lived tropical depression within the next
day or so before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and
tonight. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours and also over the next 5 days. Please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of
21N, drifting W, very slowly at 5 kt or less. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found over the NW Caribbean.
The wave is also helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over
Central America.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 95W, south of
21N, across southern Mexico and into the eastern Pacific Ocean,
moving W around 5 kt. Nearby convection is confined to land and
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N17W to a 1006 mb low pres near 17N22.5W to
11N36W to a 1008 mb low pres near 16N52W. Aside from convection
noted in the special features section above, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between
25W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle to the
central Gulf near 25N91W. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Light
to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the SW
Gulf Fri and Sat night due to a diurnal trough developing over
the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through the early next week
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted in the south central
Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south
central Caribbean, 3-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean
through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach
moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight
winds and seas will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on two areas of low pressure with the potential to
develop into a tropical cyclone.

A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered between the Bahamas and
Bermuda. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are around the high
center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N and
west of 55W. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range west of 60W, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W. Elsewhere north of 20N,
Gentle to moderate winds prevail, with locally fresh winds north
of the two areas of low pressure in the special features section
above. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. South of 20N and outside the
two areas of low pressure discussed in the special features
section above, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have gradually increased
in organization over the past day or so. Although environmental
conditions remain only marginally conducive, only slight
additional development of the system over the next few days would
lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, reaching the
far SE forecast waters west of 55W today. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early
next week.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net