[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 012032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

The high-latitude tropical cyclone has had quite the increase in
organization today.  Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery
shows decent banding features and convection wrapping around the
low-level center.  Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB both estimate Danielle to be a 45-kt system.  However, since the
storm has continued to improve in appearance, the initial intensity
has been increased to 50 kt.

Danielle is drifting eastward at 2 kt.  A strong anticyclone over
the system is creating light and variable steering flow and Danielle
should continue to meander for the next few days.  In about 4 days,
the anticyclone is expected to weaken and move eastward and a
mid-latitude trough should turn and accelerate Danielle to the
northeast.  The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly westward from
the previous prediction and is close to the model consensus aids.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be conducive for
additional strengthening during the next few days.  The tropical
storm is over anomalously warm waters and global model guidance
indicates the vertical wind shear should gradually decrease over the
next few days.  The official intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward based on the recent strengthening trend and now shows a peak
intensity of 85 kt in 60 hours.  Thereafter, when Danielle is
forecast to turn northward, it is expected to gradually weaken over
cooler water temperatures and increased vertical wind shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 38.1N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 38.1N  44.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 38.0N  44.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 38.7N  44.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 40.5N  43.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 42.5N  41.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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