[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 011444
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical
Storm Danielle.  Visible satellite imagery also shows convective
coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt.  The tropical
storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under
an omega block.  This will likely cause the system to slowly drift
around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a
mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4.  The
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters.
Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable,
with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the
next three days or so.  The NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two
days and peak in intensity in about 4 days.  When the storm moves
northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 38.1N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 38.2N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 38.2N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 38.0N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 38.5N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 40.0N  43.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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