[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 010839
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over the
North Atlantic west of the Azores has developed a well-defined
circulation and convective banding in the eastern semicircle.  Based
on this structure, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Five with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Despite the high latitude, the cyclone is in an area of light
steering currents on the southeast and south side of an anomalously
strong mid-level anticyclone.  This should result in a slow motion
for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward
drift followed by a westward drift.  After three days, the
anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the
mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system.  The
large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will
steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general
motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more
northward motion.  The track forecast is close to all of the
guidance for the first three days, and then calls for a
northeastward motion between the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the
other consensus models at days 4 and 5.

The sea surface temperatures in the area are warmer than normal -
near 27C.  This warm water, combined with a forecast environment of
light- to moderate westerly shear for the next three days or so,
should allow steady strengthening.  The intensity forecast calls for
the system to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in
about two days, and reach a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 4 days.
It should be noted that this forecast is close to the intensity
consensus, and there are models forecasting more intensification.
After four days, motion over cooler water and increasing shear
should cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 38.1N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 38.2N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 38.2N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 41.5N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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