[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 020233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The overall organization of the tropical cyclone has continued to
increase since the previous advisory.  The primary convective band
now wraps nearly completely around the center, and there have been
occasional hints of a ragged eye.  Earlier microwave imagery also
revealed the presence of a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature.
Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0 (45 kt) and
T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  Given the continued
improvement in structure, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt,
the higher end of those estimates.

Despite the high latitude of the tropical cyclone, atmospheric and
oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional
strengthening over the next 2-3 days.  As mentioned previously, the
cyclone is located over anomalously warm waters, and the vertical
wind shear is forecast to remain generally low through 72 hours.
As a result, continued steady strengthening is expected, and
Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.  By days 4 and
5, cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear are likely
to cause some weakening. The NHC wind speed forecast is in good
agreement with the latest intensity consensus aids, and shows the
same peak intensity as the previous official forecast.

Danielle continues its slow eastward motion of around 090 degrees
at 2 kt.  The cyclone is situated within an area of light steering
flow under an omega block, which is expected to cause Danielle to
meander during the next few days.  The strong mid-level ridge to
the north is forecast to weaken and shift eastward early next week.
By days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to
lift Danielle northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed.
Little change was required to the early portion of the track
forecast, but the latter part has been adjusted eastward to be in
better alignment with the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, and the
latest multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 38.0N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 37.9N  43.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 37.9N  44.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 37.9N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 38.0N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 38.2N  44.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 38.9N  44.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 40.8N  42.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 42.6N  39.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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