[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 010258
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Lisa is gradually becoming better organized with the associated
convection deepening and expanding around the center. However, the
system still lacks banding features.  The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are currently investigating Lisa and so far have found
flight-level winds as high as 46 kt and peak SFMR winds of about 35
kt.  This data supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A low- to
mid-level ridge situated to the north of Lisa is expected to build
westward.  This pattern should keep the storm on a steady westward
path, bringing the core of the cyclone near or just north of the Bay
Islands of Honduras late Tuesday night/early Wednesday and across
Belize by late Wednesday.  The models are in fairly good agreement
through landfall, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one during the next couple of days. After landfall, the
models diverge with some solutions showing a northwest track and
others a southwest motion. The NHC track forecast continues to split
the difference, and it is a touch south of the previous one to be a
little closer to the various consensus models.

The environmental conditions appear relatively favorable for Lisa
to strengthen during the next 36 to 48 hours. SSTs are quite warm
beneath the cyclone and the vertical wind shear is expected to be
low to moderate. There is some dry air near the system, however,
which might slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the consensus models and continues to
show Lisa becoming a hurricane when it is over the Gulf of Honduras
early Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain that intensity when
it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system
moves inland, and even though the forecast shows a 96-h point, it
is certainty possible that Lisa could have dissipated by then.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the coast of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, where
tropical storm conditions are possible.

3.  Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday.

4.  There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 15.6N  79.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 16.0N  81.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 16.4N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.8N  86.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 16.9N  88.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 60H  03/1200Z 16.8N  89.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/0000Z 16.8N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 17.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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