[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 35.7N 79.8W at
01/0900 UTC or 30 nm S of Greensboro North Carolina moving NNW
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas of 8-11
ft with mixed swell are still affecting the W Atlantic waters N of
28N and W of 71W. Ian will become extratropical and move to 36.8N
79.6W this afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W, from 02N to
18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 03N to 12N, between 17W and 27W. This wave has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W, from 04N to
19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 13N, between 38W and 46W. Latest scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds across the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 09N35W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N42W to 11N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 32W and
35W, and from 08N to 14N between 48W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure in the western Gulf and
generally lower pressure in the western Atlantic in the wake of
Ian is supporting moderate northerly flow across the basin with
3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front prevails east of Florida.
Cool, dry conditions are accompanying the gentle N winds across
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Winds should remain tranquil for
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from 20N79W
to a 1008b mb low near 15N81W to 13N81W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with these features are observed from
11N to 20N between 72W and 85W, including the Windward Passage.
Similar convection is noted E of 70W in the eastern Caribbean.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate across the
basin with slight seas. 2-4 ft northerly swell is gradually
abating tonight in the far NW basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough should persist over the W
Caribbean through early next week. Moderate NW to N winds are
expected west of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE
trades and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian and impacted waters
please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

8-11 ft swell from Ian currently extends W to 71W. To the east, a
stationary front extends from 31N75W to the coast of Cuba near
22N78W as a dissipating boundary. North of 20N between 66W and the
front, winds are fresh and seas near 5-7 ft. In the central
Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the E with 3-5 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from
the NE with 6-8 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass revealed an
area of strong to near gale force winds near the southern coast of
Morocco, where seas are 8-12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will
become extratropical and move to 36.8N 79.6W this afternoon, and
dissipate on Sun morning. The swell generated by Ian W of 71W will
dissipate today. An early season cold front has become stationary
east of Florida in the wake of Ian. This front should weaken
today, but be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the
coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach
from near 31N70W to 25N75W by Mon morning and dissipate by Tue.

$$
ERA
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