[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.4N 79.9W at 01/1500
UTC or 140 nm WSW of Richmond, VA moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas greater than 8 ft with mixed
swell are still affecting the W Atlantic waters N of 27N and W of
70W. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect the Central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. A gradual weakening trend is
forecast through Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has issued
the final advisory on Ian. Ian was a historic hurricane that made
landfall in western Cuba (category 3), SW Florida (category 4)
and South Carolina (category 1), producing damaging winds,
catastrophic storm surge and flooding. Future information on Ian
can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 13N, between 16W and 29W. This wave has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 14N, between 36W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to
09N39W and then from 09N41W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 47W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and the dry
continental airmass over the region maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate or weaker northerly winds and seas of
2-4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to
locally moderate northerly winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea remains quite unsettled due to surface features
and divergence aloft. A surface trough extends from south-central
Cuba to just north of Panama and a 1008 mb low pres is analyzed
along the trough near 14N81W. An upper level low over the SE
Bahamas, the mentioned surface trough and plenty of tropical
moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
covering most of the central, SW and eastern Caribbean. In
contrast, a dry continental airmass being pushed southward by the
remnants of Hurricane Ian has taken residence in the NW
Caribbean, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions for the
region. A few showers are seen near the Bay Islands and
surrounding waters.

The weak pressure environment allows for moderate or weaker winds
over the central, SW and NW Caribbean Sea, while moderate to
fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern portion of the
basin. Locally fresh northwesterly winds are occurring in off the
northern coast of Honduras and off Nicaragua, mainly within 60 nm
of the coast. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Bay of Honduras and eastern
Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough should persist over the W Caribbean
through early next week. Moderate NW to N winds are expected
west of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE trades
and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian and impacted waters
please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to 24N78W and a surface
trough continues southward to the north-central coast of Cuba.
Scattered showers are present near these boundaries, affecting the
NW and central Bahamas and surrounding waters. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh
southerly winds extend from the Bahamas and eastern Greater
Antilles northward and between 55W and 77W. Swell associated with
former Hurricane Ian continues to propagate southward and seas
greater than 8 ft are found N of 26N and between 71W and 75W. The
rest of the basin between 55W and the surface features mentioned,
seas are 4-8 ft. The upper level low over the SE Bahamas is
enhancing the shower activity from the eastern Greater Antilles
and 25N and between 58W and the SE Bahamas.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N34W to 21N45W and
scattered showers are noted within 200 nm east of the trough axis
and N of 27N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge
centered east of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa result in fresh to
locally strong NE winds N of 25N and E of 27W. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft. A bit south, moderate to locally fresh N-NE
winds are occurring from 12N to 25N and E of 35W, along with seas
of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, an early season cold front has
become stationary east of Florida in the wake of Ian. This front
should be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast
of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from
near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba by early Mon
morning and extend from 31N67W to the SE Bahamas by early Tue
morning.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net