[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 13N, between 16W and 29W. This wave has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 14N, between 36W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to
09N39W and then from 09N41W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 47W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and the dry
continental airmass over the region maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate or weaker northerly winds and seas of
2-4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to
locally moderate northerly winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea remains quite unsettled due to surface features
and divergence aloft. A surface trough extends from south-central
Cuba to just north of Panama and a 1008 mb low pres is analyzed
along the trough near 14N81W. An upper level low over the SE
Bahamas, the mentioned surface trough and plenty of tropical
moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
covering most of the central, SW and eastern Caribbean. In
contrast, a dry continental airmass being pushed southward by the
remnants of Hurricane Ian has taken residence in the NW
Caribbean, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions for the
region. A few showers are seen near the Bay Islands and
surrounding waters.

The weak pressure environment allows for moderate or weaker winds
over the central, SW and NW Caribbean Sea, while moderate to
fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern portion of the
basin. Locally fresh northwesterly winds are occurring in off the
northern coast of Honduras and off Nicaragua, mainly within 60 nm
of the coast. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Bay of Honduras and eastern
Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough should persist over the W Caribbean
through early next week. Moderate NW to N winds are expected
west of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE trades
and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.8N 78.8W at
01/2100 UTC or 80 nm WSW of Richmond Virginia moving ENE at 5
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas subsided
to just less than 8 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters just E of the
Bahamas to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N75W SW to
Andros Island and central Cuba. To the east of the front to 60W,
moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail with seas between 5 to 7
ft. West of the frontal boundary and along the Florida seaboard
winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas in the 2-4 ft
range. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the
influence of the Azores and Bermuda Highs, which are supporting
light to gentle variable winds, except E of 26W where NE moderate
to fresh winds are present with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front should be
reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE
Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near
31N70W to the NW Bahamas by early Mon morning, and extend from
31N66W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning.

$$
Ramos
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