[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 312057
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa is becoming better organized.
A large ball of convection has formed just southeast of the center,
and banding features are becoming more prominent northwest of the
center. Additionally, wind data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that the low-level circulation was becoming
less elongated, with a more circular pattern on the final pass.
The plane found maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 49 kt and
numerous SFMR values of 35 kt during the mission.  This was the
basis for the 40 kt initial wind speed on the intermediate, and that
value is kept for this advisory.

Cirrus cloud motions are showing that the upper-level flow near Lisa
is changing from westerly to easterly, with outflow also increasing
in the western quadrant.  This change suggests that the shear is
abating near the tropical cyclone.  While oceanic conditions are
also favorable for strengthening, there is still a fair bit of dry
air aloft that Lisa will have to encounter, which could temper
intensification rates.  Overall, gradual strengthening is expected,
and the new forecast is similar to the previous one.  Interestingly,
the model guidance is stronger than the last cycle, perhaps due to
the aircraft data, and is now more consistent with the latest NHC
intensity prediction.

Aircraft fixes show that Lisa continues to move westward at about 12
kt.  There have been no changes to the synoptic pattern with the
storm forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next
day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north.  Lisa should move
westward or possibly a little south-of-west while it approaches
Belize on Wednesday due to the ridge strengthening.  Model guidance
remains in very good agreement and, similar to the last advisory, a
small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, with
the core of Lisa impacting Belize on Wednesday.  We will have to
monitor  whether some portion of Lisa tries to pull a trick in the
southern Bay of Campeche at long range with some models suggesting
that a portion of the circulation could make it there, but that's
not considered likely at this time.

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras
and Belize due to the new forecast and timing, with tropical storm
watches on the Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Guatemala and
portions of the southeastern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of Jamaica, the north coast of
Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and the southeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

2.  Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday.

3.  There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 15.5N  78.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.7N  80.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 16.2N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 16.7N  85.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 17.0N  87.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 16.9N  89.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/1800Z 16.9N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/1800Z 17.5N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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