[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Fri afternoon, then move southeastward
through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow
behind the front and should reach gale force at the western Bay of
Campeche, offshore from near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat afternoon.
Seas are expected to build and reach 8 to 10 ft by late Sat
afternoon or early Sat evening. Please refer to the High Sea
Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl
for more information.

Eastern Caribbean Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layered trough continues
to persist near 69W over the eastern Caribbean Basin. Abundant
moisture along with divergent winds aloft are triggering
widespread heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the
Windward Islands northwestward to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. Locally heavy rainfall
will elevate the potential for flooding in these locations through
Fri evening. Please visit the National Weather Service San Juan
Forecast Office website at www.weather.gov/sju for the latest
details on heavy rainfall and flooding in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. For the Windward Islands, refer to your local
weather offices for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W
from southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N southward, and
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 18W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 18N southward,
and moving west at about 10 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels
are hindering significant convection near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined over the African continent.
An ITCZ stretches west-southwestward from well south of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 06N22W through 05N32W to 03N46W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed up to 180 nm
along either side of this feature between 22W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for the western Bay of Campeche.

A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from near Tampa,
Florida to northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at 23N93W, then
continues northwestward as a warm front near the Mexico-Texas
border. Patchy showers are noted over the northeastern and
northwestern Gulf, and northern Florida. Otherwise, the southern
periphery of a 1033 mb high over the Great Lakes is supporting
gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the
eastern and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary/warm front will dissipate
overnight. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the
northwestern Gulf through Fri morning ahead of the next
approaching cold front expected to enter the northwestern Gulf on
Fri afternoon. This front is expected to push off the Texas coast
late Fri afternoon and move southeastward through the weekend.
Fresh to strong N winds following the front west of 94W through
Sat afternoon. Brief gales are expected across the Veracruz area
from Sat morning through the afternoon. The front will reach the
Florida Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon
before stalling and gradually dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
widespread convection and associated heavy rainfall over the
eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
evident across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate N to NE
trades with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the deep-layered trough mentioned in the
Special Features section will lift northward into the Atlantic
Ocean on Sun. Scattered moderate convection will prevail through
the weekend across the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 66W. An
area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern
portion of the existing trough over the area. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over
the central Caribbean. This system has a low chance of development
in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 5 days.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
weekend with the trough and potential developing low.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N79W to over northern Florida. Patchy showers are
found over northern Florida and offshore to 78W. A low to mid-
level trough extends southward from west of Bermuda across 31N69W
to beyond the Mona Passage. Aided by divergent southerly flow
related to a robust upper-level trough near 72W, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 20N between 61W
and 68W. The southern extension of a mid-latitude trough reaches
southwestward from near the Azores across 31N34W to 24N44W, then
continues southward to 08N45W. A large area of scattered moderate
convection is evident from 11N to 20N between 30W and 42W, and
from 20N to 27N between 20W and 30W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

Large northerly swell is generating 9 to 12-ft seas west of the
Canary Islands north of 27N between 23W and 45W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen north of 22N
between 63W and 69W. Otherwise, the modest central Atlantic ridge
is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
18N between the northwest African coast and Georgia-Florida coast.
To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE
trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 06N between the
central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
southerly trades with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low to mid-level trough over
the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly between 60W and 70W. A surface low
pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion
of the trough axis tonight or Friday, and some subsequent
development could occur through Saturday. By late Saturday, upper-
level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development,
and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching
frontal system. This system has a low chance of development in the
next 48 hours and 5 days. A strong frontal system to the north of
the area will interact with the low and could bring fresh to
locally strong winds and NE swell with it Fri night through the
weekend west of 70W.

$$

Chan
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